Manchester United vs. Arsenal Premier League Odds, Pick, Preview: Expect Low-Scoring Showdown at Old Trafford

Manchester United vs. Arsenal Premier League Odds, Pick, Preview: Expect Low-Scoring Showdown at Old Trafford article feature image
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Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United star Cristiano Ronaldo.

  • Premier League giants Manchester United and Arsenal square off Thursday in Premier League action.
  • The Red Devils, who are favored against the Gunners, are still waiting the arrival of Ralf Rangnick to take the reins.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down this featured clash and explains why he's forecasting a low-scoring affair at Old Trafford.

Man United vs. Arsenal Odds

Man United Odds +100
Arsenal Odds +270
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +110)
Day | Time Thursday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Legendary Premier League clubs Manchester United and Arsenal square off Thursday in an ultra-important clash of top-10 sides at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils, who still have caretaker manager Michael Carrick in charge as newly appointed leader Ralf Rangnick waits for this working papers to come through, snapped a two-match skid this past weekend with a 1-1 draw against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Jadon Sancho scored the team’s lone goal.

On the other side, the Gunners moved into fifth on points after their 2-0 win over Newcastle United at Emirates Stadium.

As for the betting odds, Manchester United is currently at +100 odds on the three-way moneyline as of this writing, with Arsenal and the draw coming in at +270 odds. I can’t see the numbers changing all that much prior to kickoff, with the slight possibility Arsenal could see some money come in on it late.

That said, let’s see where we can find some betting value in this game, specifically surrounding the total.

Man United Still Awaiting Rangnick’s Arrival

Everyone who supports the Red Devils continue to wait for Rangnick make his long-awaited presence in Manchester, bringing a fresh look and approach to the club. Needless to say, moving away from the inconsistent situation Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and his staff created was a much-welcomed move across the board.

Obviously, the former Lokomitiv Moscow man is dealing with some delays getting to England, but he’s clearly excited to unveil his philosophy and style of play to the hallowed Old Trafford grounds.

"I am excited to be joining Manchester United and focused on making this a successful season for the club. The squad is full of talent.

"All my efforts will be on helping these players fulfil their potential, both individually and, most importantly, as a team."#MUFC pic.twitter.com/a3GKC42MuH

— Manchester United (@ManUtd) November 29, 2021

For complete transparency, I faded Manchester United hard in that stalemate with Chelsea and don’t regret the decision. The Blues dominated the match, finishing with a massive 2.9-0.7 advantage in expected goals and should have won the contest.

And just how bad were the other statistical lines? Chelsea held a whopping 23-2 edge in shots, 15-2 margin on corner kicks and possessed the ball almost two thirds of match. The Blues simply couldn’t find that second goal that would have put them over the top.

Has It Been Smoke & Mirrors With Arsenal?

Obviously, I’m fully aware of what the Gunners have done so far. They’ve been dominant across all competitions — particularly of late — having gone unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 matches. That lone blemish came via a 4-0 shutout defeat against Liverpool at Anfield just two games back.

And yes, I know manager Mikel Arteta’s side has won five of its last six games, which includes four consecutive clean sheets. However, when it comes to their advanced metrics, the Gunners have actually racked up terrible numbers.

That’s not just my opinion, friends. They’re downright brutal for Arsenal, which is in serious contention for a top-four placement in the English top flight and coveted Champions League berth for next season.

The Gunners have only created 16.5 xG and conceded a dismal 21.1 xGA, generating a -4.6 xG differential and -0.3 xGDiff/90 minutes. Just to show you how poorly they’ve been on the offensive side, 17th-place Watford has complied a better xG number (16.7) than Arsenal. Defensively, Burnley — yes, the club sitting in 19th place — has allowed just 19.6 xGA this season.

Suffice it to say, if those numbers don’t vastly improve in the immediate future, things are likely to take a strong turn in the wrong direction.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

These sides are known for tight, gritty matches and I don’t think we’re going to see anything different in this affair. Midweek contests are difficult to handicap due to the lack of rest between fixtures, plus the lineup shuffling that happens that leads to teams not being as crisp and in sync as usual.

For that reason, I’m heading to the Asian Handicap and backing the total to stay under 2.75 goals at -115 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. The last five meetings between these rivals have ended with two goals or less, so I’m expecting much of the same in this latest showdown.

Arsenal has kept a clean sheet against Manchester United in their last three clashes and five of their last seven combined games these sides have played stayed under 2.5 goals, which has me fancying my chances with this wager.

Pick: Total Under 2.75 Goals (-115)

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