Premier League Odds & Picks (Sunday, July 26): Arsenal vs. Watford

Credit:

Richard Heathcote/Getty Images. Pictured: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

  • Arsenal and Watford will meet in their final Premier League match on Sunday.
  • Arsenal (+102 favorite) is looking to bounce back after a loss to Aston Villa. Watford (+255) is hoping escape relegation.
  • Dillon Essma breaks down the matchup, including his pick.

Arsenal vs. Watford Odds & Pick

Arsenal Odds +102 [Bet Now]
Watford Odds +255 [Bet Now]
Draw +275 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-200) [Bet Now]
Time Sunday, 11 a.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Arsenal welcomes Watford to the Emirates on Sunday for the season finale.

Watford appears to be in free fall — they haven’t shown the urgency required over the last month, and sacked their manager Nigel Pearson. Arsenal came off the high of beating this year’s then last year’s Premier League champs by losing to bottom dweller Aston Villa, which sets us up for an interesting match to break down.

Watford Analysis

To me, the Watford players have given up on their season. It’s hard to blame them when the club sacks Pearson with two games left and they’re fighting to stay up. The manager actually did a decent job, as the club made an improvement in the table until recently.

They lost 3-1 against West Ham, and I was very disappointed in their effort level. It was an essential game to grab a point from, and they came out in the first half like they didn’t want to be on the pitch.

The next game wasn’t any better — Man City was their opponent, but still had a toothless performance. Keep it 2-0, and they were still in good position, but they rarely threatened to score and lost 4-0.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Watford have a -0.7 expected goal (xG) differential over the past month, and have really struggled creating chances (xG 0.94/game). Watford are now tied with Villa on points, and trail by one on goal differential. They need a result, but I think it will be tough to get a point at the Emirates.

Stats Since Restart Arsenal Watford
Expected Goals 1.16/gm 0.94/gm
Expected Goals Allowed 1.21/gm 1.66/gm
Expected Goal Differential -0.05/gm -0.72/gm

Arsenal Analysis

Arsenal were flying high with wins over Liverpool and Man City, then came their trip to Villa Park earlier this week. Aston Villa kept a clean sheet, and could have scored a few more. Gritty performance by them, but it was an uninspiring showing by Arsenal. I think that was a classic letdown spot while this is a classic bounce-back spot.

If I’m Mikel Arteta, I want to end the season on a high note. What better way to do that than at home against a team without a real manager that is looking uninspired.

Pick: Arsenal (-113)

This is more of a play against Watford than it is on Arsenal. I do expect Arsenal to bounce back at home. I bet it earlier in the week at +105, but I would bet it down to -120. I just don’t see Watford creating enough chances to convert, and I think Arsenal’s front three will take advantage of one or two.

A clean sheet and an Arsenal victory at the Emirates.

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