Premier League Odds & Picks | Best Bets, Featuring Brighton vs Newcastle, Arsenal vs Man United

Dabbundo: For the third time in four weeks, I’m backing Brighton at a price that I think undervalues them. From a tactical perspective, you can see how this matchup could be an issue defensively for Brighton. Newcastle are comfortable defending without the ball, they’re elite in transition and largely a better version of the West Ham team that just ripped Brighton apart for three expected goals and a 3-1 away victory.

Newcastle are very physical in the midfield, force high turnovers and can exploit a clear weakness in Brighton’s transition defense. The Seagulls lost one of their best center backs and defensive midfielders in the transfer window and haven’t done much to replace either this summer despite the huge influx in cash.

Despite these deficiencies, I can’t get to the number where Newcastle is a road favorite at Brighton. The Magpies are down their top defender in Sven Botman, and there’s been very little gap in the underlying numbers of these two teams in the year 2023. Brighton are still one of the top teams by expected goals for and still have elite ball progression and retention numbers to play through Newcastle’s off ball pressing attempts.

The market moved solidly toward Newcastle in the last week after the Magpies opened as +0.25 goal underdogs in the spread market. I agreed with the initial market sentiment where Brighton is a small home favorite, but now think it’s moved too far to be a true tossup on the English south coast. The Seagulls are a buy for me once again, draw no bet at -115 or better.

Pick: Brighton – Draw No Bet (-102 via bet365)

Saturday, Aug. 26

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Liverpool smashed and grabbed a win at Newcastle, but even before the Virgil van Djik red card they were showing serious defensive flaws just like they always do.

The problem that exists for Liverpool as it pertains to this match is they are getting short on defenders. Van Dijk is suspended and Ibrahim Konate is doubtful to play. That means it’s likely going to be Joel Matip alongside Joe Gomez in defense. That means Liverpool are going to have to most likely play very transitional in this match, which I don’t think is a bad strategy.

The way to beat Aston Villa to get at them in transitional opportunities. The last thing you want to do against an Unai Emery team is play a slow pragmatic build up.

Aston Villa have created the second most expected goals behind only Brighton. Emery is sticking with three at the back even after Tyrone Mings got hurt, slotting in Diego Carlos, which is a down grade, but what it’s done is allowed Lucas Digne and Matt Cash to get forward more often to help aid in the attack and swing in crosses. Liverpool are weak defending in wide areas, so Villa are going to have chances to swing crosses into the box.

This match is going to be very up and down and with Liverpool’s injuries in their backline and inability to stop ball carriers.

I think we’ll see a ton of goals. I have 3.54 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3.5 (+110 via Caesars)

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Saturday, Aug. 26

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Crystal Palace Odds	-105
Wolves Odds	+333
Draw	+230
Over / Under	2.5  +120/ -150

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Crystal Palace’s home matchup with Wolves is unlikely to be one of the most exciting matchups on the board, but Palace are the better side by my power ratings and shouldn’t be shorter than -110 on the three-way moneyline to win this contest. I understand the apprehension to back the Eagles as a favorite because their attack can be lackluster and inconsistent, but they maintain their above league average defensive numbers and are much better out of possession than Wolves.

Wolves stole a late winner on the road at Everton, but that game further exposed Wolves' major problems in build-up play. The loss of Matheus Nunes hurts their central midfield even further and Palace actually ranks top five in pass completion rate allowed through the opening three matches of the season.

Jose Sá had one of the best goalkeeping performances of the last two seasons for this defense to keep a clean sheet against Everton, but the abandonment of former manager Julen Lopategui’s defensive possession style has lowered the defensive rating of the squad. They will create and score more as a result, but I don’t know that it makes them better.

I’d bet Palace to win this match at -112 or better.

Pick: Crystal Palace ML (-105 via DraftKings) 

Sunday, Aug. 27

11:30 a.m. ET

USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Arsenal have been good but not great to begin the season. They got caught on the wrong side of some variance in the match against Fulham, creating well over three expected goals and Fulham scoring their two goals off of 0.6 expected. 

Man United will have Casemiro for this match, but they have a ton of other injuries to deal with. Luke Shaw, Raphael Varane, Tyrell Malacia and Mason Mount are all confirmed out for this match and Rasmus Hojland is questionable. So, that means it's going to be Viktor Lindelof in the back line. 

Varane is a big loss for Manchester United because he is an elite defender at stopping transitional opportunities and is good in one-on-one situations. Malacia is normally the back up to Shaw at left back, so Diogo Dalot now has to play out of position. 

Manchester United are playing an incredibly risky high pressing style this season, trying to become an elite pressing side. They have forced 41 high turnovers through three matches, which is the most in the Premier League, and they have the second-highest direct speed in the Premier League.

United were pretty good in the first 45 minutes against Tottenham – another man-mark pressing team – but Spurs eventually broke through and dominated the second half. Burnley are another team that man mark presses and they beat Manchester United 3-0 in a behind closed doors friendly less than two weeks ago. Arsenal are going to man mark press them and Manchester United are either going to have to play very direct or they’re going to struggle in the build up phase. 

I have Arsenal projected at -117, but with all of the injuries to United, I think Arsenal are much more suited to exploit a lot of their weaknesses.

Pick: Arsenal ML (-125 via Caesars)