Premier League Odds & Picks | Best Bets, Featuring Burnley vs Man United
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Bruno Fernandes.
We have fantastic Premier League slate ahead of us headlined by one of the best rivalries in world football the North London Derby, Arsenal vs Tottenham.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & picks.
Premier League Odds & Picks
| Crystal Palace Odds | -106 |
| Fulham Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Dabbundo: Entering the season, I had major questions about how Palace would sustain a Premier League quality attack despite losing Willfried Zaha and potentially Michael Olise. Olise hasn’t yet played for Roy Hodgson’s side, but the Eagles have gotten significantly improved production from both Odsonne Edouard and Eberechi Eze to take their attack up a level. The defense has remained quality overall and is a top five unit through five matches, but the real story is Palace’s improvements in shot production and quality.
Eze ranks inside the top five in the league in progressive carries into the final third. He took a step forward in his underlying xG + xA numbers to 0.39 per 90 and has taken a real leap into excellent territory at 0.60 this year. His shot volume has spiked and while it’s not particularly high quality shots, his shot assists for Edouard and his ball carrying add real value to an otherwise passive Palace attacking side that doesn't commit many numbers forward.
Eduoard’s start is even more encouraging. He managed just six shots in three matches against Arsenal, Aston Villa and Brentford, but when facing worse defenses, he’s totaled 14 shots in two matches against Wolves and Sheffield United. In the aggregate, Edouard sits at 0.54 xG per 90. That’s well above-average striker production, which Fulham don't have since Aleksandar Mitrovic departed the club. Fulham’s defense is a bottom three unit and they don’t have the attacking quality to make up for it anymore. Palace are as good going forward and much better defensively and at home. -105 is a bit short of a moneyline price.
Pick: Crystal Palace ML (-105 via bet365)
| Burnley Odds | +320 |
| Man United Odds | -138 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +137 |
Cunningham: The problems with Manchester United are pretty clear right now. They are dealing with a lot of injuries across their backline and they can’t defend their own penalty box at the moment.
It starts though with their press when they are out of possession. The match against Brighton on Saturday is just a microcosm of the problems that currently exist at Man United. Ever since Ole Gunnar Solskjær left, both Ralph Ragnick and Erik Ten Haag have tried to turn United into an elite pressing team and they don't have the personnel to do that. Vincent Kompany does favor a possession build out of the back style and given how bad things are going for United with their press, I wouldn’t be surprised if Burnley are able to do the same.
United have looked dangerous in transition opportunities. They are primarily playing out of the back with Onana and trying to beat the first line of the press and attack the opposing backline with pace.
Burnley’s high pressing style just flat out isn’t working. They didn’t really get a chance to press Nottingham Forest high because Forest sends 85% of their goal kicks went long, but they were pressing with a front four against both Aston Villa and Tottenham. That is incredibly aggressive and may have worked in the Championship, but against good build up teams they don’t have the personnel to have it work effectively, which is why they’ve conceded 7.4 xG in four matches.
With both teams looking to press high, that is going to create a lot of space in transition for both teams to operate, so I think we'll see a very back and forth match at Turf Moor.
Pick: Over 3 (+104 via BetRivers)
| Chelsea Odds | -120 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Cunningham: The time is now to buy low on Chelsea.
The Blues have had a dreadful start to the season, but the underlying data is actually quite positive. The big story is they’ve only scored five goals off of 10.2 xG, but they also have taken the fourth-most shots from inside the penalty area, have the third-most box entries and have the best xG per set pieces in the Premier League.
What has been more impressive is what they are doing out of possession. Chelsea are pressing really effectively, being the number one team in PPDA and opponent build up completion percentage allowed. That has translated to them only allowing 4.5 non-penalty expected goals and being top three in box entries allowed and xThreat allowed.
A problem exists for Aston Villa as Unai Emery only wants to build out of the back and will not even entertain the idea of playing the ball long and playing in transition.
In two games against quality opposition, Aston Villa turned it over in their own end time and time again and allowed both Liverpool and Newcastle to create a combined 5.8 xG.
There is also the added travel for Aston Villa, who are playing Legia Warsaw in Poland on Thursday in the Europa Conference League.
I have Chelsea projected at -122, so I like the value on them in this spot at home at -109.
Pick: Chelsea ML (-109 via BetRivers)
| Sheffield United Odds | +550 |
| Newcastle Odds | -223 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
Dabbundo: Not only did Newcastle have a difficult away trip in the midweek to Italy, but the attack is clearly not in good form right now. The performance at home against Brentford — 0.65 non-penalty xG and just seven open play shots — was a concern given that the Bees were the first team to sit off Newcastle and dare them to break down a lower defensive block.
The Magpies followed up that performance with six shots against a Milan side that had shipped five goals to Inter Milan in the same building three days before the match. Newcastle remain an elite defensive side — if you just schedule adjust their xGA this season, only Man City have conceded fewer chances — but the attack is flawed and Eddie Howe doesn’t seem to be willing to play Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson on the pitch at the same time against weaker opponents.
With just one of them on the pitch, that leaves Newcastle short on attacking production to punish inferior teams. I expect the Magpies to have to grind out a lot of close, low-scoring results because of that. Newcastle should win this match, but the total should be closer to 2.75. Sheffield United have been by far the worst attacking side in the league through five matches and the personnel doesn’t suggest much improvement is coming.
Newcastle piled on a lot of xG and goals playing from the front last year because they scored early a lot. Without those early goals, Newcastle's totals are inflated in the market.
Pick: Under 3 (-137 bet365)
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