Premier League Odds & Picks | Best Bets, Featuring Fulham vs Chelsea

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Cunningham: This is another situation where Aston Villa will be going up against an elite pressing team and will try to build out of the back. Brighton are third in PPDA and second in build up completion percentage allowed. When they played Liverpool and Newcastle they got destroyed trying to build out of the back.

They did get a 1-0 win over Chelsea, but before the Gusto red card in the 58th minutes they had created just 0.24 xG.

If you are not an elite low block team that is comfortable sitting in for a majority of the match, Brighton will destroy you. The Seagulls have created the second most non-penalty expected goals, big scoring chances and have the second-best final third to box entry conversion rate, just showing how effective they are at overloading the last line of defense and breaking down low blocks.

Brighton's biggest problem is they've conceded too many big scoring chances, which has inflated their xG allowed. However, the Seagulls are still seventh in shots allowed, fifth in final third entries allowed and fourth in xThreat.

I have Brighton projected as a road favorite, so I like the value on them from a both a projections and tactical standpoint.

Pick: Brighton – Draw No Bet (-103 via bet365) 

Saturday, Sept. 29

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Any time you can bet a team that just lost 8-0, you have to do it. The Premier League market is no different from other sports and it tends to overreact to the most recent outlier performance. Sheffield United will concede a lot of space and territory, but they haven’t been a poor defensive side prior to Sunday’s dismantling. They’ve lost the expected goals battle in every match, but West Ham are too flawed defensively and too inconsistent at creating chances against settled defenses to warrant a moneyline price north of -200 against anyone except Luton.

When the lookahead market for this match sat around -170 the week prior, I agreed with the price. Now that the Hammers have taken a ton of money, it’s time to play back against them. We saw Bournemouth take an early season 9-0 pounding at Liverpool and respond with a quality defensive performance and 0-0 home draw with Wolves. The Hammers are second in big scoring chances and have unsustainable xG per shot numbers, but rank 19th in box entries and 16th in shots per 90.

This situation really isn’t all that different. That Wolves side struggled to break down a more defensive Bournemouth and West Ham should have similar issues on Saturday. The Hammers have played a difficult schedule to this point, but even if you schedule adjust their numbers, the Hammers are allowing more teams into their box and getting shots at rates far higher than past seasons.

I’d bet Sheffield United +1 at anything plus money.

Pick: Sheffield United +1 (+120 via BetRivers)

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Saturday, Sept. 30

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Everton Odds	-175
Luton Town Odds	+550
Draw	+280
Over / Under	2.5  +100 / -125

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Everton are starting to build something after a dreadful start to the season. The performance away to Brentford was one of the best of the season because of what they did out of possession.

They didn’t all out press like they usually would do, but instead sat off quite a bit and then used pressing triggers to set traps and eventually win the ball off of Brentford to create a transition opportunity.

While all that is great, the Everton defense hasn’t been great. They have limited big scoring chances, but as is the case with Everton, they have been poor in transition defense for a long time now, which is not good against a primarily transition team in Luton Town.

Everton have also been very poor defending in wide areas. They’ve allowed the fourth-most crosses to be completed in their penalty area, which is how Luton Town creates most of their chances.

Luton Town had a bad start to the season, but their first two matches were against Brighton and Chelsea. Against West Ham, Fulham and Wolves they created over 1 xG in each of those matches.

The Hatters don’t do many things well offensively, but it’s very clear that they want to get the ball wide and send in a ton of crosses, which has been successful because they have completed the second most crosses per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.

The flip side is their defense hasn’t been great. They are allowing far too much space in the middle of the pitch, teams are able to build through the center fairly easily and their pressing that was so good in the Championship just hasn’t been there here in the Premier League as they’re second to last in PPDA.

Pick:Both Teams to Score – Yes (+104 via FanDuel) 

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Monday, Oct. 2

3 p.m. ET

USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Chelsea’s issues scoring goals are well documented at this point and positive regression will eventually come in the finishing department. No team in the Premier League has underperformed xG more than the Blues through the opening six matches of the season, but I’m not sure this is the match that happens given the attackers available. New forward Nicolas Jackson has been the primary shot option for the Blues and he is suspended for this match through yellow card accumulation.

The Blues have been excellent at tilting the field on their opponents and have the third-best defensive numbers in the PL. Turning that game control into high quality shots has been an issue, and finishing chances has been an even bigger issue. The Blues will face off against Fulham goalkeeper Bernd Leno, who has saved more goals above expected in the entire league thus far.

The market still expects Chelsea to bounce back, but the market might be undervaluing the changes happening under the hood at Fulham. Marco Silva has made the Cottagers considerably less open in recent matches as the reality of the lack of goal scoring becomes apparent. Now without Aleksandar Mitrovic, Fulham can’t just aim to outscore teams. They held Luton and Palace under 1 xG and kept clean sheets and conceded just seven total shots to Manchester City.

I’m betting against this match being a high event one and expecting both sides to struggle for goals on Monday Night Football.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (+120 via bet365), Under 2.5 (-110 via bet365)