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Premier League Odds, Picks: Everton vs. West Ham Betting Preview

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Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Neal Maupay.

Everton vs. West Ham Odds

Everton Odds +195
West Ham +145
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -125)
Day | Time Sunday | 9:15 a.m. ET
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Frank Lampard’s Everton are still seeking their first victory of the new league season when they host former Toffees manager David Moyes and West Ham United.

Everton may be starting slowly. But the performances are improving incrementally, including most recently a 0-0 draw against Merseyside rivals Liverpool two weekends ago.

West Ham are even on points with Everton while balancing Europa Conference League commitments. The Irons will be less than 72 hours removed from their last continental encounter, a 3-2 win over Silkeborg of Denmark on Thursday.

West Ham won both meetings by a single goal last season, 1-0 at Everton’s Goodison Park and then 2-1 in the return fixture at London Stadium.

Everton

After helping the Toffees escape relegation last season, Lampard has been given a fair bit of patience from his supporters. And there are signs his rebuilding effort is working.

The Toffees’ -3.5 xGDiff may be the fifth-worst in the Premier League, but it has come while the team effectively played without a striker for all but one match.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is still out with a knee injury. But summer window signing Neal Maupay provided Everton a new dynamic in his debut against Liverpool. And the extra training time provided by last week’s postponements should help the former Brighton forward gain more understanding of his new squad.

On the other end, the Toffees will be without England No. 1 goalkeeper, Jordan Pickford, who picked up a thigh injury in the draw with Liverpool. Pickford is the Premier League’s top goalkeeping performer against post-shot xG, conceding 3.4 fewer goals than post-shot xG predictions.

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West Ham

The Irons may have also welcomed last weekend’s postponements given their continental itinerary. And their opening Conference League games may have helped unlock an attack that was struggling.

The Hammers saw off Romania’s FCSB 3-1 at home and then Silkeborg 3-2 away on consecutive Thursdays after scoring only thrice in their first six league matches.

Six different players scored in those two games, including summer signings Gianluca Scamacca and Emerson Palmieri for the first time for their new club.

The quick turnaround shouldn’t be too difficult for the Sunday’s visitors, who were able to secure the result in Denmark while resting much of Moyes’ first-choice lineup.

Betting Analysis & Pick

For Everton to be home underdogs suggests a bigger gulf in quality between these sides than what has been seen so far in the 2022-2023 league campaign.

The Irons have the slightly better xG numbers. But it’s Everton who could be expected to improve more as the season progresses, and who have been better in recent weeks after a rough start.

And while West Ham should have enough fresh players in the squad to overcome travels from a fitness perspective, it still impacts preparation time. And this is an Everton side who look a good deal different from last year, especially in how they defend.

So at the price, I like the Toffees to get their first victory and start looking more like a finished product.

The +195 odds and an implied 33.9% probability suggest West Ham are about half the table better right now, in a league where home teams won 43% of the time last year and 50% early on in this one.

I just don’t see evidence of that,  especially given that Everton’s relegation scare last season owed to considerably underperforming their xG totals and other metrics.

The Pick: Everton ML (+195)

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