Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Liverpool vs. Watford EPL Betting Preview (April 2)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Liverpool vs. Watford EPL Betting Preview (April 2) article feature image

Marc Atkins/Getty. Pictured: Liverpool standout defender Virgil van Dijk possesses the ball.

  • Liverpool welcomes struggling Watford to Anfield for Saturday's Premier League matchup.
  • The Reds are massive -900 moneyline favorites against the Hornets, but analyst Avery Zimmerman has found a creative was to back the hosts.
  • Check out below where he's landed for this affair and found some betting value with his top pick.

Liverpool vs. Watford Odds

Liverpool Odds-900
Watford Odds+2500
Over/Under3.5 (-135 / +100)
Day | TimeSaturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchUSA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The Premier League returns to action this weekend with an important fixture, as title contender Liverpool hosts a team looking to avoid relegation in Watford.

Currently in second place, the Reds are understandably massive favorites in this fixture, but the Hornets famously ended the Reds' invincible run in the COVID-altered title season. So, that's just a small reminder that anything can happen in this league.

So, will Liverpool be able to handle its business in an easy manner or can Watford provide a challenge at Anfield?

Liverpool Entering Familiar Situation

As we come off the international break, most of Liverpool's squad will be familiar with the circumstances it’s returning to as the season winds down and things heat up.

Just three years ago, the Reds were in a near-identical spot as legitimate contenders to win both the EPL title and Champions League. Its rival in the domestic competition was Manchester City, who was also alive in the European competition.

In the 2019-20 campaign, City ousted Liverpool in the English top flight with a whopping 98 points. Unfortunately for the Reds, they just missed out with 97 points. It didn't come without drama on the final day when Brighton & Hove Albion held a lead over City, but that only lasted a matter of seconds before the club got the job done.

For Liverpool, this game against Watford could be the start of something very similar, as City holds a one-point edge on it with nine games remaining in the league The teams are due to meet April 10 for a blockbuster fixture, but it'll be important for each side to take three points from their respective games this weekend.

The Cityzens are similarly massive favorites on the road at Burnley, and while their last game was a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace, the Reds know they’ll likely require three points to keep pace with the league leaders.

Trent Alexander-Arnold is the only certain absence for Liverpool after suffering a hamstring injury, but for the most part the team is healthy. With that being said, stars such as Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané are coming off intense international breaks, so they might not be at full fitness.

We've seen before that the duo is almost inhuman in terms of recovery, but in the earliest match time slot, it might be hard to be at 100 percent in this tie.

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Watford in Crunch Time to Avoid Relegation

If Watford is to avoid a return to the Championship, a miracle result at Anfield wouldn't hurt.

The Hornets will need to do something that only three EPL teams have done this season and that's earn a draw on Liverpool’s home soil. If they can secure all three points, Watford would be the first team to pull off the feat this season.

Fortunately for the visitor, it has actually been a mid-table team on the road this campaign. While the Hornets record at Vicarage Road features a league-worst seven points from 14 games, they have 15 points in 15 games away from home.

Watford should also come into this fixture a bit more rested than Liverpool off the break, but it remains a squad that isn't remotely close to the level of one of the best sides in the world.

BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

In each of Liverpool's league games that have followed international breaks thus far on the season, it has recorded a win with a clean sheet. So, it's easy for me to see value in that outcome here.

The Reds' defense is conceding just 0.94 xGA per game at Anfield in league play, while the Hornets have generated one xG per road match on average.

Liverpool has allowed more than 1.0 xGA once in its last five EPL matches. However, during that span, the Reds are averaging 0.66 xGA/game. Overall, Liverpool has conceded just a goal in that time frame.

That said, look for this trend to continue as Liverpool secures a professional result ahead of a season-defining game.

Pick: Liverpool — Win to Nil (-115)

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