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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Burnley vs. Leicester City EPL Betting Preview (March 1)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Burnley vs. Leicester City EPL Betting Preview (March 1) article feature image
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Christopher Lee/Getty. Pictured: Jay Rodriguez of Burnley is challenged by Luka Milojevic of Crystal Palace.

Burnley vs. Leicester City Odds

Burnley Odds +195
Leicester City Odds +150
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -115)
Day | Time Tuesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Midweek FA Cup action will dominate the footballing headlines in England, but there is one Premier League game to be played — and it’s an important one.

Burnley will host Leicester City as the Clarets continue to climb up the table following a string of positive results. Sean Dyche’s squad has recorded three victories in two of its past three games and a draw in the other, allowing Burnley to escape from the bottom of the Premier League.

It still resides in the relegation zone, but the situation is looking far better than it did two weeks ago. The same can’t be said for Leicester City, who has amassed just two points in its last five games, dropping the Foxes into 13th place.

Just six points separate the two teams, making this a key fixture for each side. Which team has the edge in this Premier League encounter?

Burnley Rolling in Crucial Fashion

Just a couple weeks ago, Burnley was at the bottom of the table and struggling to get anything going, but a few good results on the bounce has brought some much-needed momentum to the Clarets’ safety efforts.

While Burnley has certainly been the beneficiary of some good fortune, its level has elevated from most of the prior games in the season, when the Clarets struggled to test opponents game after game.

Burnley held the xG edge in wins against Brighton, Hove Albion and Tottenham, and it earned a draw against Crystal Palace despite the Eagles holding a 0.78 xG differential.

It also works to Burnley’s advantage that it had a number of games postponed earlier in the season due to COVID-19 and weather issues, as the Clarets have played two fewer games than 16th-placed Leeds and three fewer games than 15th-placed Brentford.

The way that things are trending, you’d expect Burnley to overtake the Peacocks in due time, but it’ll require amassing some more good results for that to happen. This will be another solid opportunity to do that at home against a team that is reeling.

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Leicester City Hoping to Avoid Precarious Position

Much like Burnley, the Foxes have a number of games to make up due to postponements. In fact, Leicester has played the fewest games in the league, but of the games that it has played, there hasn’t been much success as of late.

Leicester hasn’t recorded a league win in the new year, earning two points from five fixtures. The Foxes certainly outplayed their opponents in some of those games, namely Brighton, West Ham and Wolves, but poor defensive lapses and a lack of finishing has cost them.

For a team that is always toward the top of the league in conversion rate (third this year), that has to be very frustrating. However, it should provide confidence that this period of form will improve at some point in the near future.

Brendan Rodgers will also have the services of a few important players in a greater fashion than he has recently. Jamie Vardy, Ricardo Pereira and Marc Albrighton are all likely to return in some capacity at the Turf Moor.

Leicester did thrash Randers FC, a Danish side, in the Europa League a week ago, but Burnley on the road is certainly a stiffer test than the sixth-best team in the Danish Superliga.

Betting Analysis & Pick

It’s hard to take a team in this fixture as Burnley has been steadily improving while Leicester is a bit of an unknown ahead of this contest. The return of a few players will be useful, but this is a confident Burnley side that has found a result in each of its last four home games.

What has been consistent with these teams — at least in the Premier League — is limited chances. Six of Burnley’s last seven league games have had two or fewer goals, while five have had fewer than 2.5 xG.

Just two of Leicester’s five PL games in 2022 have had fewer than two goals or xG, but the Foxes have generated just 1.32 xG/game away from the King Power Stadium throughout the year.

Because of that, I’m comfortable paying the very slight juice on the under with a cagey affair very likely as both squads seek a crucial result.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-115)

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