Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 13)
Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images. Pictured: Kieran Trippier.
- Newcastle United welcomes Aston Villa to St. James’ Park for Sunday’s Premier League clash.
- Oddsmakers have essentially made this a Pick’em match, with the Villans entering as a slight +165 ML favorite.
- Nick Hennion breaks down the matchup below and explains why he’s expecting offensive fireworks in this meeting.
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Odds
|Aston Villa Odds||+165|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-120 / -105)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Newcastle United looks to continue its brilliant start to the calendar year in a home fixture against Aston Villa, which has dropped points in five of the last six.
The Magpies produced a 3-1 home victory over Everton in its midweek fixture — extending its unbeaten run to four — while Villa hung on for a point in a thrilling 3-3 draw against Leeds United.
Aston Villa won the first meeting between these teams back in August, 2-0 at Villa Park. Villa is unbeaten in its last five against Newcastle, including two 1-1 draws in the last two at St. James’ Park.
Newcastle Needs Better Defense on Home Soil
Premier League observers saw just how well this Newcastle side can play when clicking, as it was in its most recent fixture.
In its first fixture after the January transfer window, manager Eddie Howe’s side created 2.3 expected goals — its second-highest output of the season — while its defense limited a decent Everton attack to only 0.6 xG and one big scoring chance, per fotmob.com.
That victory also helped build upon an above-average home resume for Newcastle, which has now earned at least a point in six of the last seven and eight of the last 12 at St. James’ Park.
Its attack has led the way at home, producing at least 1.00 xG in three consecutive matches and nine of 12 on home turf.
That said, Newcastle’s defense has continued to struggle at home. It has kept only a single clean sheet against EPL cellar-dwellers Burnley while allowing the second-most home xG in the Premier League.
Even though there could be some positive defensive regression on the way — Newcastle has conceded 24 times at home on 21 expected goals against (xGA) — the most recent output against Everton is only the third time Newcastle held a visiting team under 1.0 xGA.
However, the good news for Howe’s side in this fixture is that it has proved very capable of earning points at home against the bottom half. In six such fixtures, Newcastle has earned 10 points from six games (two wins, four draws).
Aston Villa Due for Positive Result
The honeymoon phase for Aston Villa has come to an abrupt halt under Steven Gerrard, whose side has taken just six points from its last six games after winning four of its last six.
Additionally, the Villains continue to outperform its underlying metrics this season. Through 22 fixtures, Villa hold a minus-4 goal differential on a minus-7 xGDiff, per fbref.com.
And while it did well to earn a point in the midweek against Leeds, there could be some lingering effects from that match come Sunday. Ezri Konsa picked up a late red card and will miss this game, while Emi Buendia and Philippe Coutinho suffered injuries and could potentially miss out against Newcastle.
That said, Villa is simultaneously due for some positive regression based on its last few fixtures. In its last four EPL outings, it has a zero goal differential on a +1.1 xG difference and has had the edge in three of its last four games in terms of expected goals.
It has also done well against the bottom-half this season, earning a result in eight of 10 against the EPL’s 10 worst sides to date. Included in that is a 2-0 home victory over Newcastle earlier this season.
However, its offense has really come up lucky in those 10 fixtures. All told, Villa has scored 19 times on only 12 xG against the bottom half this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
To me, these sides are essentially equal right now. I lean toward Newcastle on its Draw No Bet line, but lean draw on the three-way moneyline.
That said, I expect this fixture is one where goals could come quite easily. In Newcastle’s six home matches against bottom-half teams, there’s an average of 2.67 goals being scored per game. As for Villa, it has managed at least one goal in all five road fixtures against bottom-half opposition and at least two goals in seven of 10 overall.
Additionally, both defenses are still bottom-half in the xGA per 90 table. The absence of Konsa for Villa will likely exacerbate that problem, while Newcastle’s home defensive troubles have been well documented.
I can easily envision a game script that sees four or more goals at St. James’ Park, so take over 2.5 goals for this fixture.
Given that you’ll likely get participation from both sides — each club has scored in nine Newcastle home games — I would play this up to -130 odds.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-120)