Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Brentford EPL Betting Preview (March 5)
Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Norwich City standout Teemu Pukki.
Norwich City vs. Brentford Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+115 / -160)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
The Premier League relegation battle is in the thick of things, and Norwich City’s encounter with Brentford on Saturday will be important in determining if either or both will be moving to the Championship at the end of the season.
Both teams are in the bottom six in the table, though the Canaries’ odds of survival are far worse than the Bees, as they currently sit in last place despite playing as many games as any team in the bottom six besides Brentford.
So, where does the edge exist in this crucial EPL fixture? Let’s take a look.
Norwich City Staring at Quick EPL Departure
After arriving back in the EPL this year, things are looking bleak for the Canaries.
They were knocked out of the FA Cup at the midweek by Liverpool, so this is the last competition remaining for Norwich and it’s an ugly scene right now when looking at its survival chances.
Listed at anywhere from -1000 to -1250 odds to be relegated, Norwich is essentially being counted out by oddsmakers as it hasn’t secured a league point in its last three games and will need to go on a major run to escape.
That doesn’t look likely, though, as Norwich has scored the fewest goals in the EPL and conceded the second most overall. The club is also generating the fewest expected goals, while conceding the most xGA this season.
It’ll be hard to secure results when those are the metrics behind the team, but that’s the task at hand and it starts with one of the most winnable games the Canaries will have in the final third of the season.
Brentford Looking to Overturn Decline
A fellow newly promoted side looking to avoid the same likely fate that Norwich will receive, Brentford quickly needs to reverse a brutal trend of form.
The Bees have amassed just four EPL points in 2022, with their last win coming on Jan. 2 in league play. Brentford has also held an xG advantage in just two games in the new year, which is a tribute to just how poorly the Bees have played since turning the calendar to 2022.
Now third-worst in the Premier League in terms of xG and seventh worst in terms of xGA, this fixture also provides Brentford with a key chance to return to positive ways with a point or more.
A loss here would be devastating to say the least. Each team below Brentford has game(s) in hand, including 18th- and 19th-place Burnley and Watford. Though Brentford is five points clear of Watford right now, Burnley is just five points behind with two games in hand, an incredibly worrying situation.
Needless to say, the stakes are nearly just as high for Brentford in this tie as they will be for Norwich.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Having to decide between either of these teams isn’t pleasant, and while I’d like to look at the total, neither of these defenses are reliable enough for me to try and back a juiced under on the total. However, each attack hasn’t generated one-plus xG since Feb. 12 (Brentford) and Jan. 15 (Norwich) entering this matchup.
That being said, I still want to lean toward the home side as its -0.66 xG/home game differential still edges out Brentford’s -0.94 xG/game road differential.
I’d ideally like to back Norwich on the Draw No Bet line, but with the three-way moneyline priced at +200 odds at DraftKings and DNB priced at +100, the potential of returned money on a draw isn’t enough to offset the 17% implied probability differential between the prices.
I’ll take a shot on the Canaries salvaging any hopes of EPL safety.
Pick: Norwich City ML (+200)