Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction: Expect Offensive Fireworks Between West Ham, Newcastle in EPL Match
Alastair Grant – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Tomáš Souček.
- West Ham United welcomes Newcastle United to London Stadium on Saturday for their Premier League match.
- The Hammers enter this contest as solid -145 ML favorites, but don't expect the Magpies to not put up a fight.
- Nick Hennion breaks down the meeting below and details why he's expecting both clubs to find the back of the net.
West Ham vs. Newcastle Odds
|West Ham Odds||-145|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Seeking revenge from a defeat in its Premier League opener, Newcastle United travels to London on Saturday to face a struggling West Ham United.
The Hammers earned a 4-2 win in their visit to St. James' Park on the opening matchday, but only have one victory in their last four fixtures. On the flip side, Newcastle is unbeaten in five and has won three consecutive fixtures.
Success has come for the Magpies in this fixture, with that 4-2 drubbing marking their first outright defeat in four matches against their latest foes. All told, Newcastle is 5-3-1 (W-L-D) in the last nine meetings.
Defensive Woes Still Haunting West Ham
The last three fixtures for the Hammers have been headlined by its ability to over-perform its underlying metrics on the offensive end.
Against Manchester United, Watford and Leicester City — clubs featuring bottom-half EPL defenses — West Ham has scored three goals, but on only 1.7 expected goals in the process. Its highest xG output in those fixtures? A mere 0.7 xG against the latter two opponents.
Meanwhile, its defense has crumbled and conceded plenty of opportunities. Outside of a 0.3 xGA performance against Watford, West Ham allowed an average of 1.8 xG against per 90 minutes in matches against Leicester, United and Leeds. That is 0.56 xGA/90 higher than its average (1.24) this season.
However, if there's reason for optimism with West Ham, it's that manager David Moyes' side has proven somewhat reliable on the offensive end at home. Through 12 EPL fixtures at London Stadium, it has generated 1.55 xG per 90 minutes, just north of its 1.39 xG/90 season-long average.
Plus, West Ham's performance against Watford marked the first time in which its attacked failed to clear at least one expected goal. And in six home fixtures against bottom-half opposition this season, the Hammers are averaging close to 1.65 xG/90, per fbref.com.
Lastly, despite all of West Ham's recent struggles, it has generally taken care of business against bottom-half sides. In 14 such contests, West Ham is 9-2-3 (W-L-D) and has earned a result on xG in 11 of 14 games.
Newcastle Results Not Telling Actual Tale?
While Newcastle has been superb of late, there's an argument to be made its somewhat fraudulent.
Four of its five results in the midst of this unbeaten run have come against bottom-half opposition, while the club's lone result against a top-half side came at home, where it's far and away a better side.
That said, manager Eddie Howe has this defense playing its best all season. In its last five fixtures, the Magpies have conceded only 0.94 xGA per 90 minutes. Additionally, it has kept two clean sheets after keeping only one in its first 20 EPL matches.
However, the bad news for Howe is that January signing Kieran Trippier (broken foot) is likely done until April with a broken foot. Further, backup right back Javier Manquillo is out, so Howe will need to get creative with his lineup.
Lastly, although this isn't the same Newcastle side that played a majority of these fixtures, it has not played well against top-half clubs. The Magpies are 0-8-3 (W-L-D) in such fixtures and have lost every match on expected goals.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I lean toward West Ham as a side, but Jarrod Bowen coming in as a question mark steers me away from laying a price with the host.
Meanwhile, there's no denying Newcastle is playing better, but I personally want to see what happens when it faces a better side. Plus, without Trippier, I don't know from where Newcastle is going to create on the offensive end.
The one place I do see value on the board is in the Both Teams To Score market. West Ham's recent performances lead me to believe you're getting a big discount on this price, but there are trends to support it cashing.
In 14 matches against the bottom half this season, West Ham has seen the "Yes" side of BTTS cash in 10 matches, while Newcastle has seen the "Yes" cash in eight of 11 matches against the top half.
Further, this market has been quite profitable in recent head-to-head fixtures. In the last five meetings, the "Yes" side has cashed in four of them, but both sides have created at least 1.0 xG in eight consecutive games.
Finally, both sides have BTTS percentages north of 64 percent this season. For those reasons, expect both clubs to get on the board at the London Stadium.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-135)