English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Arsenal vs. Norwich City Preview (Wednesday, July 1)

Credit:

Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Granit Xhaka

Jul 01, 2020, 11:03 AM EDT
  • Arsenal is a heavy favorite over last-place Norwich City, which will need a minor miracle to avoid relegation back to the EFL Championship.
  • As a result, Norwich should be inclined to open things up and try to grab three points, instead of sitting back and playing for one.
  • That's why Michael Leboff is taking a number of paths to betting this game, including the over and both teams to score.

Norwich City at Arsenal Odds, Pick

Norwich City odds +650 [BET NOW]
Arsenal odds -235 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +370 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (+112/-137)
[BET NOW]
Time Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Arsenal have seemingly righted the ship after a pair of worrying losses right after the break. A deserved 2-0 win over Southampton was followed up by a last-gasp victory over Sheffield United in the FA Cup this past weekend.

A home match against the last-place team in the Premier League should keep the good times rolling at the Emirates, though Arsenal have a habit of making a meal of easy matchups.

Norwich City put in a decent shift in each of their last two matches, an extra-time loss to Manchester United in the FA Cup and a 1-0 loss to Everton, but the time for moral victories has long passed for the Canaries, who will need a minor miracle to avoid being relegated back to the Championship.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Arsenal Norwich City
Goals for per game 1.39 0.81
Expected goals for per game 1.4 1.11
Goals against per game 1.32 1.81
Expected goals against per game 1.59 1.89
Total goals per game 2.71 2.61
Total expected goals per game 3 3

If you cover up the names and just look at the stats, this becomes a match between a mediocre team and a bad one. Arsenal may be just in the positive in terms of actual goal differential, but their xG differential sits at -5 and makes them out to be the 10th-best team in the Premier League this season.

Those numbers are much stronger than the -23.7 xG differential that Norwich City brings to the table, but don’t get fooled into thinking that Arsenal are a sure thing to run away with this match on Wednesday afternoon.

If they truly want to go for broke and make a run at a great escape, Norwich don’t have any other choice but to go for the win at the Emirates, which could lead to a wide-open affair, especially if someone finds an early goal.

Even if the match doesn’t open up, neither one of these defenses are anything to write home about, so the goals should come at some point.

I’d wait until the lineups come out since both of these teams have played a bunch of games in a couple of weeks, but if they look decent I think the Over 3 at +110 or better, Both Teams to Score at -120 or even Arsenal To Win and Both Teams to Score at +200 or better all seem like appealing options for this match.

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