Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Everton vs. Chelsea EPL Betting Preview
Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Everton standout Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
- Everton hosts Chelsea in Sunday’s Premier League action at Goodison Park.
- The Toffees are fighting to avoid relegation, but analyst Ian Quillen has found another way to back the hosts.
- Check out below where he’s landed and found the most value with his top pick.
Everton vs. Chelsea Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
The Premier League survival for Everton could be severely dented if it can’t pull off a surprising result Sunday against visiting Chelsea at Goodison Park.
The Toffees find themselves five points adrift of safety entering Sunday’s clash against Chelsea after Burnley rallied for a 2-1 win at Watford in Saturday’s action. The better news comes in the form of Leeds United’s home loss to Manchester City that brings the club back into the relegation scrap.
Despite its third-place standing, Chelsea might arrive at Goodison with less to play for, with no realistic shot at the title and an eight-point cushion to keep it above the top four. That lack of urgency might have shown in a midweek 1-1 draw at Manchester United that lacked cutting edge from both sides late.
These sides previously drew 1-1 at Stamford Bridge back in December, which is one of a handful of matches where Chelsea has failed to secure three points despite dominating proceedings.
Everton Fighting to Stay in Top Flight
The Toffees have had a nightmarish season, but find themselves in their current position not so much because of their own recent form, but Burnley’s four-match unbeaten run.
If anything, the stretch following the March international break has comprised some of Everton’s better play this season. The Toffees have only taken four points from those five matches, but the quality of play has been closer, with them only trailing opponents by 0.4 expected goals in that time frame.
That’s significant in part because it’s a run of games that followed manager Frank Lampard’s first chance to have some extended training with his team. Upon his appointment, Lampard had 10 games to manage across all competitions between Feb. 15 and March 20.
Even Everton’s 2-0 loss at title challenger Liverpool last Sunday might represent a step forward. The Toffees defended well for an hour and posed a reasonable threat on the counterattack. In the process, they became only the third team this season to restrict Liverpool to less than 2.0 xG in a home in an EPL encounter.
Maybe more to the point, Lampard for the first time at Everton showed a willingness to sit in a lower block and hit an opponents wide on the break. That’s the model in which much of this squad was constructed under previous manager Rafa Benitez.
Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and center back Yerry Mina are expected to be available after both missed the latest Merseyside derby. Calvert-Lewin’s inclusion might be more important because it will allow the influential Richarlison to play out wide instead of a less natural center-forward role.
Chelsea Defense Still Shining on Road
The Blues are clearly the third-best team in England right now, solidly behind Liverpool and Manchester City and well ahead of the rest of the clubs fighting for the fourth Champions League berth.
Yet, games like Thursday’s 1-1 draw at Manchester United are the kind that might make Chelsea fans wonder “what if.” The visitors were clearly dominant before halftime, and should’ve already been a goal to the good before Marcos Alonso finally gave them the lead in the 60th minute.
However, a moment of brilliance from Cristiano Ronaldo two minutes later leveled the match and, in truth, wasn’t weren’t as threatening in the final half hour of the contest.
It was an odd away performance for a side that has been better away than home at times. Instead, it followed the model of previous home draws to Manchester United, Everton and Burnley. In each, Chelsea easily had enough opportunities to take all three points.
There was one consistent, though, and that’s Chelsea’s exceptional defensive record away from Stamford Bridge.
Tuchel’s side has conceded multiple goals only once in 17 previous Premier League away matches. The Blues have allowed opponents less than 1.0 xG in away games on 12 of those 17 occasions.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Statistically, the bet that jumps out here is playing Everton not to score.
The Toffees have been good at home under Lampard, but limited in ideas going forward. And they’ve struggled against pressing teams like Chelsea.
However, emotions and desperation also matter for something. They have appeared to give Everton enough edge to find a goal against Newcastle United, Manchester United and Leicester City when its play hasn’t quite merited it.
Also, the Liverpool performance might have been enough to convince Lampard to stick to a countering style that could be to the club’s benefit.
In contrast, it’s not quite clear what Chelsea is playing for aside from staying in good form ahead of its FA Cup final date with Liverpool.
The Blues still have enough class to see off Everton even if the host brings more energy. However, I think the home side can find a way to score once — and only once — as it has in three of six previous EPL fixtures under Lampard.
Pick: Everton — One Goal Exact (+145)
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