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Southampton vs. Crystal Palace Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value With Eagles in EPL Clash (April 30)

Southampton vs. Crystal Palace Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value With Eagles in EPL Clash (April 30) article feature image
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Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Crystal Palace standout Wilfried Zaha and manager Patrick Vieira.

  • Southampton plays host to Crystal Palace in Saturday's Premier League action.
  • The Saints have struggled turning for home, but that hasn't been the case for the visiting Eagles.
  • Nick Hennion breaks down the match below and details why he's backing Crystal Palace to get a result.

Southampton vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Southampton Odds +135
Crystal Palace Odds +200
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -130) 
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

CalI it another “playing for nothing” derby as Southampton gets set to host Crystal Palace Saturday at the St. Mary’s Stadium.

Both sides are looking to end winless streaks in this fixture. Southampton is winless in two and only has one win in its last eight while Palace has failed to win in three consecutive fixtures.

The reverse meeting at Selhurst Park saw the sides play to a 2-2 draw, with Palace winning on expected goals. Yet, prior to that result, Palace dropped points in three of the last four contests.

Fast Start Goes South Fast at Southampton

There was such hope for manager Ralph Hassenhutl’s side earlier in the year, but that has rapidly dissipated.

The Saints managed to put together a five-match unbeaten run between Jan. 22 and Feb. 25, but have since gone 1-5-2 (W-L-D) overall. Most of those poor performances can be attributed to Southampton’s defense, which has conceded at least one xG in seven of its last eight fixtures, per fbref.com.

Additionally, Southampton has conceded 1.9 expected goals per 90 minutes in its last six fixtures, up from a season-long average of 1.49 xGA/90 minutes. Its attack has simultaneously fallen off a cliff as Hassenhutl’s side has created under one expected goal in three of its last four and has generated only 0.98 xG/90 in its last five, down from a season-long average of 1.3 xG/90.

If there’s a bright spot with this Southampton side, it’s that it tends to play well at home. A 1-0 victory over Arsenal put an end to a three-match home leasing streak with the Saints losing only one home match prior to that negative run.

Lastly, the Saints could see some slight positive offensive regression based on its home performances as it has scored 21 home goals on 22 expected.

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Defensive Prowess Powering Crystal Palace

Defense has proved Crystal Palace’s calling card all season and it has continued to perform well of late.

Across its last seven Premier League fixtures, only one side (Manchester City) has created north of 1.1 expected goals against the Palace defense, which has conceded only 0.87 xGA/90 minutes in those seven matches, down from a season-long average of 1.13.

However, it still manages to struggle in matches played away from Selhurst Park. Manager Patrick Vieira’s side has dropped two in a row on the road after putting together a five-match road unbeaten run and owns a -6.2 road xGDiff against a +9.3 xGDiff at home.

That said, it is showing signs of improvement. Palace has conceded only 0.98 xG/90 in its last five road matches. In the five preceding road fixtures, it allowed 1.58 xG/90, per fbref.com.

Granted, the competition hasn’t been as difficult, but there are at least positives to be had with Palace away from home.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

To me, I’m shocked Crystal Palace is an underdog in this spot.

Although its road issues do need to be acknowledged, the fact is Crystal Palace has played exponentially better than Southampton of late. Across its last 10 games, Palace owns a +2 xGDiff to Southampton’s -2.7 xGDiff overall.

Now, if you’re thinking the Eagles played easier opposition, you should think again. In their last 10 tilts, the average table position of their opponents was 9.9 compared to Southampton’s average position (13.2) in that same span.

Further, Palace has done well lately against teams that like to press. It’s unbeaten in four consecutive outings, earning points in 10 of 15 matches against the league’s eight-best pressure sides this season.

Given the Palace attack has also played quite well recently — 1.48 xG/90 in its last six fixtures — expect it to dominate Southampton’s defense and rediscover its recent positive road form.

Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (+115)

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