Premier League Odds & Picks: How to Bet Bournemouth vs. Tottenham

Credit:

Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images. Pictured: Callum Wilson of AFC Bournemouth.

  • Bournemouth, which desperately needs points to survive relegation, is a +390 underdog Thursday against Tottenham, which is a -148 favorite to win two in a row after a nice victory Monday against Everton.
  • The Cherries have been very poor at home this season, posting a -4.75 expected goal differential, which doesn't bode well for today's match against the Spurs.
  • But is the market too bearish on Bournemouth? I break it all down below.

Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Odds

Bournemouth odds +390 [BET NOW]
Tottenham odds -148 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +300 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-127/+102)
[BET NOW]
Time Thursday at 1 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Thursday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


A battle of to teams at opposite ends of the table takes place Thursday as Tottenham heads to the Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. Tottenham will be looking to build off their win against Everton on Monday in hopes it will give them an outside shot at a top-five finish.

Bournemouth on the other hand are fighting for their Premier League lives, sitting four points from safety. Time is running out for the Cherries and they need points points from this game to have a shot a surviving relegation.

Bournemouth

It’s now or never for the Cherries. They need this game if the want to avoid falling back into the Championship. Bournemouth has been the worst team in the Premier League since the restart, losing all four of their matches by a combined score of 12 to four.

However, expected goals shows us things aren’t as bad as they seem. In those four matches, Bournemouth have only lost the expected goals battle 3.83 to 6.29.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


At the Vitality Stadium this season, Bournemouth have been poor, collecting just 17 points in 16 matches, with a -4.75 expected goal differential. With a high powered Tottenham offense coming to town, the Cherries will need to pick up their level of play or their stay in the Premier League is over.

Tottenham

Spurs have taken just 15 points from their 16 matches on the road this season and their underlying numbers away from home are not pretty. Tottenham ranks in the bottom half of the Premier League in expected goals for, against, and differential.

In fact, Spurs have only one win in their past seven matches on the road and allowed an average of 1.94 xG per match in that span. What’s even more alarming is five of those seven matches came against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Tottenham’s poor play has caused some of their players to reach their boiling point. At half time of the Everton game on Monday, Heung Min Son and Hugo Lloris had to be separated from each other by their teammates.

All of the quotes after the game suggest the two have put it in the past, but team’s with good chemistry don’t usually fight with each other so openly.

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Analysis

Even though Bournemouth are in terrible form, I think this match is perfect time to buy low on them. Based on my model, I think the Cherries are undervalued in this match:

  • Bournemouth projected odds: +203 (33.02% win probability)
  • Tottenham projected odds: +140 (41.73% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +296 (25.25% win probability)
  • Bournemouth projected xG: 1.30
  • Tottenham project odds: 1.48

Based on those numbers, I am going to back Bournemouth to get at least a draw in this match.

Pick: Bournemouth +1 (-148)
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