Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Burnley Undervalued at Home vs. Sheffield United (Sunday, July 5)

Credit:

Rich Linley – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Burnley’s Chris Wood (left) celebrates with team-mate Phillip Bardsley.

Burnley vs. Sheffield United Odds

Burnley odds +195 [BET NOW]
Sheffield United odds +175 [BET NOW]
Draw +195 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2 (+106/-117) [BET NOW]
Time Sunday, 7 a.m. ET
TV NBC Sports

Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Two of the more defensive-minded teams in the Premier League will meet early Sunday Morning.

Burnley have been in disarray off the field with injuries and departures of some of their key players. On the field has been a different story, as they’ve rattled off consecutive 1-0 victories against Crystal Palace and Watford.

Sheffield United come into the match after an upset win against Tottenham in the mid-week. With the win, the Blades are only five points off Wolves and Manchester United for the lone Europa League spot. So, dropping points at this stage of season is not an option.

Burnley

Burnley is dealing with a couple of issues on Sunday.

Not only have they allowed a couple of key contracts to expire, they also could be without their three main strikers, Ashley Barnes, Jay Rodriguez and Chris Wood. Despite all the turmoil, Sean Dyche’s men have stayed focused on the field, winning their last two matches as underdogs.

The Clarets’ calling card has always been their defense. Burnley always line up in a 4-4-2 and play a similar style of football as Atletico Madrid, which has historically been known as Europe’s best defensive team.

Although the Clarets don’t put up the same defensive numbers as Atletico Madrid, they have found a lot of success playing the 4-4-2 as shown by their +2.73 expected goal differential when playing out of that formation.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Burnley has been a tough outfit to beat at Turf Moor, picking up 26 points in 16 matches and boasting a +5.29 expected goal differential. They’ve been in especially good form as of late, going unbeaten their last five home matches. They’ve been on fire offensively in those five matches, scoring 2.37 xGF per game, which has led to a +4.15 expected goal differential in those matches.

Sheffield United

The Blades finally escaped their bad run of form Thursday beating Tottenham 4-1 at home. However, most of their poor results have come on the road, where Sheffield have earned only five points in their last seven matches. They’ve struggled mightily in front of net in those matches, generating only 0.69 xG per game.

To this point in the season, the Blades have been fortunate defensively. Although, they only allow 1.00 goal per match, expected goals shows they actual should be allowing 1.37 goals per match. Regression is coming for the Blades defensively at some point, and it may just happen against in form Burnley side.

Analysis

Much like Burnley’s last two matches this will likely be a low scoring affair. Based on my model, I think Burnley is undervalued yet again on Sunday morning:

  • Burnley projected odds: -100 (50.08% win probability)
  • Sheffield United projected odds: +312 (24.29% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +290 (25.63% win probability)
  • Burnley projected xG: 1.53
  • Sheffield United projected xG: 1.04

Even though they are still in disarray off the field, I am going to back the Clarets to get at least a draw from this match.

Pick: Burnley Draw no Bet (-103)
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