Premier League Odds, Betting Picks: Burnley vs. Wolves (Wednesday, July 15)

Premier League: Burnley vs. Wolves Odds, Pick

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Wolves continues their push for European football on Wednesday as they travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley.

With the news this week that Manchester City’s Champions League ban is being overturned, Wolves now finds themselves on the outside looking in for the final Europa League spot. Wolves trails Manchester United by four points and needs to win out to have a shot at fifth place.

The home side is sitting right in the middle of the table and is mathematically eliminated from earning European football, so they have nothing to play for in this match.

Burnley 

The Clarets have been one of the surprise teams since project restart. Burnley has taken 11 of a possible 18 points and conceded just two goals in their past five matches.

The Clarets have been solid at Turf Moor this season, posting a +4.97 expected goal differential, which ranks seventh in the Premier League. They’ve been in especially good form as of late, going unbeaten in their last six matches at home. In those six matches, they’ve significantly improved offensively, averaging 2.24 xG per match, compared to their 1.32 xG per match for the season.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Clarets typically line up in a defense-first 4-4-2 formation formation, which allows Burnley to keep eight players behind the ball and create a defensive wall that works in unison to deny the opposing team space to play through the center or between the lines. I think their starting to find their defensively over their few matches and will be a tough outfit for Wolves to breakdown.

Wolves

Every match from here on out is a must win for Wolves if they want to qualify for European football. They’ve been impressive since the restart, winning four of their last six matches and only conceding three goals in the process. However, they’ve struggled to create high quality chances as they’ve only created 1.22 xG per match since the restart.

One constant with Wolves this season, is all but one of their eight losses has come against teams ranked in the top 10 defensively (Burnley ranks 10th). Also when they are playing on the road against the top half of the table, they’ve been below average offensively, averaging only 1.32 xG per match in those matches.

Previous Meeting

Wolves needed a 97th minute penalty to draw with Burnley 1-1 back in August. The two sides played a fairly even match and the 1-1 was the deserving result based on the expected goals report.

Analysis

Wolves opened as a +125 favorite, but has risen all the way up to -113 due to them receiving 62% of the money per the Action Network App. Based on my model, I think Burnley’s slightly undervalued in this match:

• Burnley projected odds: +291 (25.57% win probability)
• Wolves projected odds: +115 (46.58%)
• Draw projected odds: +259 (27.85%)
• Burnley projected xG: 0.97
• Wolves projected xG: 1.32

I am going to take a shot and back Burnley to win this match at home.