Chelsea vs. Leeds United Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Blues to Win Big

Chelsea vs. Leeds United Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Blues to Win Big article feature image
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Maksim Konstantinov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Timo Werner

  • Chelsea takes on Leeds United in Saturday Premier League action.
  • The Blues enter as massive favorites, so a play on their spread could hold value.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks the Saturday matchup down below.

Chelsea vs. Leeds Odds

Chelsea Odds -340
Leeds Odds +850
Draw +500
Over/Under 3.5 (+115 / -145)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

After dropping points in disappointing fashion in its midweek Champions League tie with Zenit St. Petersburg, Chelsea return home to face Leeds United in the Premier League.

The Blues lost control of the EPL last week when they lost to West Ham in London, but have a good opportunity to right the ship against a feisty but struggling side.

Leeds will arrive at Stamford Bridge having been fortunate to find a last-minute winner in its last Premier League outing against Brentford. The Peacocks trailed 2-1 before Patrick Bamford tallied a leveler in his first game back from a lengthy injury absence.

How will they fare in a much tougher circumstance this weekend?

Chelsea Flipping Script in Unfortunate Fashion

The story of the Blues’ start to the season was that they were a team that could come out and perform below their peak level before turning it on in key moments to secure clutch victories.

While an unsustainable method of maintaining continued results, Chelsea was able to squeeze out wins against the run of play in consistent fashion. Unfortunately for the club, regression has hit, and Chelsea are now experiencing life on the other end of the equation.

Poor performances against West Ham, Zenit, Man United and Burnley in recent weeks have resulted in dropped points across competitions, and I’m not even sure that Chelsea fans would argue the slip in form hasn’t been warranted.

West Ham outpaced the Blues in terms of xG last week, and Zenit was able to maintain touching distance with Chelsea by the same metric. The same can’t be said for the aforementioned matches with Man United and Burnley, but that’s the way this sport can go at times and Chelsea has been the beneficiary of the same scenario on numerous occasions thus far in the season.

Manager Thomas Tuchel will still be without key midfielder N’Golo Kante and defender Ben Chilwell, though Jorginho may return to the squad after missing out on the Champions League contest.

Leeds About to Enter Daunting Stretch

If there is a harder four-game period in the Premier League than what Leeds are about to endure, please let me know. The Peacocks will be away at Chelsea and Man City before returning home to face Arsenal and going back on the road to Anfield.

That is quite literally as tough as it gets in this league, and getting four-plus points from that stretch would likely be viewed as a big win. Leeds does produce the fifth-most scoring chances in the league, however, so it may be possible for Marcelo Bielsa’s team to earn chances at points by being aggressive.

The issue, of course, is that Leeds also concedes a ton of goal-scoring chances. The Peacocks average 1.55 xGA/game, seventh-worst in the league. That isn’t a brutal number by any stretch, and the return of Bamford will bolster the attack even further.

Unfortunately, Bielsa will be disappointed that Bamford may be dealing with a fresh injury concern while Kalvin Phillips and Liam Cooper could be out for an extended period of time.

If Leeds are able to remain in the 15th spot in the league or position themselves even higher up by the end of this brutal run of games, they’ll be in an excellent spot to jump higher in coming weeks.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Chelsea are one of the best sides in the EPL, and it shades a bit better at home than on the road compared to some others. Chelsea have a 1.14 xG/game differential in Premier League games at home this year, while Leeds have amassed a -.19 xG/game differential on the road.

Add in the fact that Leeds have to account for yet another batch of injuries that includes the star man that just returned from an absence, and it’s hard to have too much faith in the Peacocks’ chances.

I think the Blues will be eager to return to their winning ways after a subpar period, and you can expect a boost in intensity. A manager like Tuchel won’t allow for extended periods of poor performances, and Chelsea are a far superior team at a base level than Leeds.

Back the Blues to excel in this crucial showdown.

Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (-120)

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