Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace (Wednesday, June 24)

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PETER POWELL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Sadio Mane

Crystal Palace at Liverpool Odds, Pick

Crystal Palace odds +950 (BET NOW)
Liverpool odds -315 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +425 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 2.5 (-134/+108)
(BET NOW)
Time Wednesday, 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


It won’t quite be official yet, but Liverpool’s 30-year wait for a Premier League title is almost over.

A win today would move Liverpool 23 points clear of Manchester City and if City comes up short against Chelsea tomorrow, the Reds will be crowned champions.

Crystal Palace have nothing to play for in this game as they’ve already secured another season in the Premier League. However, the Eagles will look to play spoiler again, like they did in 2014 when they ended Liverpool’s title chances at Selhurst Park in one of the most famous Premier League matches of all time.

Liverpool

Liverpool have been the most dominant team in Europe this season.

The Reds are led by soccer’s most lethal front three: Sadio Mane, Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino. Those three have created 43.51 expected goals and 18.77 expected assists between them.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Liverpool is a perfect 15-0-0 at home this season and have won 60% of their home matches by at least two goals. No defense has been able to stop Liverpool’s three-headed monster up front and I don’t think Crystal Palace will be up for the task.

Jurgen Klopp’s defense, which is led by Virgil van Dijk, has been terrific all season long. Van Dijk has completely revitalized Liverpool’s defense since he joined the Merseyside club two seasons ago.

Liverpool’s defense only concedes 0.97 expected goals per match and just 0.92 xG against at home this season.

If Liverpool is on song, I have a tough time seeing how Crystal Palace will stop them.

Crystal Palace

The Eagles returned from the break with a 2-0 win at Bournemouth. The victory at Dean Court continued Crystal Palace’s good form from before the pandemic.

Palace have taken 13 of a possible 24 points from their last eight games but those results are a bit flattering as the Eagles have a -1.74 xG differential in that span.

A ninth-place finish for Crystal Palace would be a rousing success but they will need to improve their results against England’s best teams if they want to stay in the top half of the table.


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Roy Hodgson’s team has only earned five points from 10 matches against teams ahead of them in the standings (first through eighth) in 2019-20. The Eagles have been played off the pitch in those games, losing the xG battle, 22.81 to 8.25.

Crystal Palace have been a bogey team for Liverpool over the years but I think the Eagles will struggle to stop Liverpool’s attack on Wednesday.

Analysis

The Reds have been too good at home this season for me to see this game going any other way and model makes Liverpool a bigger favorite than the market on Wednesday:

  • Liverpool projected odds: -419 (80.74% win probability)
  • Crystal Palace projected odds: +2948 (3.28%)
  • Draw projected odds: +526 (15.98%)
  • Liverpool projected xG: 2.24
  • Crystal Palace projected xG: 0.50

Instead of laying the massive juice, I’ll back Liverpool to win by multiple goals.

Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-103)
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