Premier League Odds, Betting Pick & Prediction: Bet Everton as a Big Underdog vs. Everton in Merseyside Derby

Merseyside Derby: Liverpool at Everton Odds & Pick

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One of the great rivalries in English Soccer will serve as the headliner for the Premier League’s first weekend back in action. The 236th Merseyside Derby between Everton and Liverpool will be their strangest encounter, but it’s an important one for both sides.

Liverpool are a mortal lock to lift the Premier League Trophy and a win over their neighbors would put them within three points of making it official.

Everton still have an outside shot at the Europa League but they’d need to make a serious run over the next few weeks to put pressure on Manchester United and Sheffield United.

All due respect to Everton’s Europa League hopes, Liverpool are the A-side of this matchup on Sunday and figure to attract a significant chunk of the betting support in what figures to be a well-bet match considering the time (2 p.m. ET) and the fact that it will be aired on NBC.

If you are betting on Liverpool you need to be OK with the fact that their price is going to be inflated. Not only are they a popular team playing in a standalone game on national television, but their underlying numbers suggest that the Reds are due for a bit of regression.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Liverpool leads the league with a +45 goal differential but their expected goals differential is +32.34. According to Understat, Liverpool have gained 22.19 more points than they should have so far this season — that is the biggest discrepancy in the Premier League.

Everton’s surface-level numbers won’t wow anybody but a deeper look reveals a team that’s been bit by some bad luck in 2019-20.

The Toffees have won only 10 matches this season but their underlying metrics imply they should be 9.65 points higher in the standings, making them the second-unluckiest team in the circuit behind Watford. Carlo Ancelotti’s Blues may be sitting in 12th but they actually should be fighting for a spot in the top-six according to expected goals.

There is some mental baggage to unpack for this game as this has been a one-sided rivalry over the past decade. Everton have failed to win each of their last 21 matches against Liverpool and haven’t scored a home goal against the Reds in the last five Merseyside Derbies at Goodison Park.

The odds imply that Everton’s miserable run will continue under the Goodison lights on Sunday:

• Liverpool: 60.1% win probability
• Draw: 22.5%
• Everton: 16.6%

Liverpool are a better side than Everton but I think the Toffees are being underrated in this spot, and considering their statistical profile, the Toffees may be a team that provides betting value throughout the rest of the season.

Everton is 5-3-3 with an even goal differential under Ancelotti but their expected goal differential is +8.13, suggesting that the Italian manager had his team in good form since taking over.

Liverpool likely will win this game but that doesn’t mean taking a shot on Everton at a great number is a bad bet. At +475 you really only need Everton to win this match about 18% of the time to really start seeing value. I think the Toffees tick that box.

Pick: Everton +475

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