Premier League Betting: Liverpool vs. Sheffield Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, Oct. 24)

Premier League Betting: Liverpool vs. Sheffield Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, Oct. 24) article feature image
Credit:

James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Rhian Brewster.

  • In the midst of three games in seven days, Liverpool host Sheffield United on Matchday 6.
  • The Reds have gotten one point from their last two games and are dealing with significant injuries to their defense.
  • BJ Cunningham explains why there is value in betting Sheffield United.

Liverpool vs. Sheffield United Odds

Liverpool odds -435 [BET NOW]
Sheffield United odds +1150 [BET NOW]
Draw +540 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (+106/-127) [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
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After winning their opening three matches, Liverpool have now dropped four points in their last two Premier League matches. Manager Jurgen Klopp has a lot of difficult decisions ahead of him because Liverpool is going through an injury crisis with three matches in the next seven days. Because of that, we could a lot of reserve players feature in this match.

It’s been a horrific start for Sheffield United, as the Blades only have one point in their first five matches.

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Liverpool

After winning their first three games of the new Premier League season, Liverpool have just one point from their last two games, having lost 7-2 to Aston Villa and drawing local rivals Everton, 2-2, last Saturday. They did get a 1-0 victory away against Ajax on Wednesday in the Champions League, but Klopp’s team is dealing with a lot of injuries to key players that could create problems.

Center back Virgil Van Dijk and goalkeeper Alisson Becker are out, while the Reds are still waiting to hear whether midfielders Naby Keita and Thiago and center back Joel Matip will be available to face Sheffield United.

Since the restart of last season, The Reds have only taken 27 points from a possible 42 in 14 matches in the Premier League. They also have only a +9.2 expected goal differential, which is fifth-best mark in the Premier League during that time span.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


With how jam packed their schedule is right now, this is a big-time letdown spot for the Reds at home.

Sheffield United

After a dream first season back in the Premier League, the Blades have fallen on hard times to start their second campaign. They’ve managed to score just two goals and have lost their first four of their first five matches. However, Sheffield United has generated 5.14 xGF so far this season. That means positive regression could be coming their way on Saturday.


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In an attempt to bolster its attack, Sheffield signed 20-year-old striker Rhian Brewster from Liverpool at the transfer deadline for $28 million. He spent much of last season on loan at Championship side Swansea City, bagging 10 goals in 20 league appearances. He has yet to start for the Blades, but manager Chris Wilder has indicated that Brewster could be in line to do so against his former club.

Sheffield United was one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League last season, allowing just 39 goals in the 38-game league season. If the Blades can produce a strong defensive performance, we could see Liverpool struggle to create quality scoring chances on Saturday.

Projections and Pick

With all of Liverpool’s injury issues and their fixture congestion, I think Sheffield United could keep this game close. I have Liverpool’s margin of victory projected at 1.53, so I think there is value on Sheffield United’s spread of +1.5 at +118. However, I wouldn’t play it any higher than that number.

The PICK: Sheffield United +1.5 (+118)

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