Manchester United vs. Brighton Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Tuesday’s Premier League Match

Manchester United at Brighton Odds, Pick

Odds as of Tuesday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Fresh off Harry Maguire’s late winner in the FA Cup quarter final against Norwich on Saturday, Manchester United hits the road to England’s South Coast to play Brighton on Tuesday. United is in a great run of form dating back to before the lockdown, as they haven’t lost in 14 matches in all competitions, winning 10 and drawing four.

The addition of Bruno Fernandes has spiced up a previously lackluster United attack, and the return of Paul Pogba to the starting XI led to a 3-0 thrashing of Sheffield in their last Premier League match.

The Red Devils have to win on Tuesday to keep pace with fifth-place Wolves, who are three points ahead of them for the potential race for the final Champions League place.

In their last seven PL matches, United have conceded just twice, and expected goals models suggest they’ve been quite fortunate to only allow two because they’ve allowed 6.4 xG in those matches.

Combine that with Manchester United’s disappointing road form throughout most of the season, where they have scored 16 and conceded 19 in 16 road matches, and I’m expecting Brighton to be able to generate chances to score.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

United have struggled at the AmEx in past trips to Brighton. While they won 3-1 in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford this season, the Seagulls won 3-2 and 1-0 in United’s last two trips to the South Coast.

Graham Potter’s side entered the restart period in a desperate need for points. While underlying metrics have rated the Seagulls higher than the table suggested, they found themselves in a relegation scrap.

Since the restart, though, Brighton came back to defeat Arsenal 2-1 and earned a 0-0 draw with Leicester. Four points from top-half teams have Brighton hovering six points above relegation. Expected goals metrics rank Brighton 13th in the Premier League, and a league average team at home.

The Seagulls have scored 19 and conceded 16 at home this year, and notched wins against Arsenal, Spurs and Everton while drawing Chelsea and Wolves. Potter’s side have tried to play more possession football in 2019-20, and they rank seventh in possession and sixth in passes allowed per defensive action, indicating that they are much more of a high pressing team.

United have had their best offensive games against teams that play this type of soccer, like Chelsea and Manchester City. Obviously, Brighton are not on the level of those two teams, but the play-styles have similarities. The Seagulls have been a tough out at home against the biggest clubs, and I’m expecting that to continue on Tuesday.

Because United’s defensive record isn’t nearly as impressive away from Old Trafford, and Brighton will have chances to score off of set pieces and on the counter, I’m backing both teams to score in this match. United’s improved attacking form should get them on the board and I’m expecting Brighton to nab one.