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Premier League Week 16 Preview: Bettors Hammering Manchester City at Chelsea

Dec 08, 2018 8:00 AM EST
  • Following a crazy week of action, Premier League Week 16 is highlighted by Chelsea-Manchester City (Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC).
  • Man City will look to maintain their undefeated season while Arsenal are also aiming to make it 21 straight matches in all competitions without a loss.
  • We've analyzed the betting market for all ten matches and recommended three value plays to make.

Manchester City will face one of their toughest tests of the entire season with a trip to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET on NBC).

The Citizens are still undefeated in the Premier League this season and have drawn just twice. However, they’re just two points ahead of second-place Liverpool breathing down their necks.

2018-19 Season Trends

  • EPL bettors were starved for upsets most of the season but there were two big shocks in the past two weeks: Huddersfield beat Wolves as +650 underdogs and Wolves returned to the favor against Chelsea with a comeback victory as +518 underdogs.
  • Even with those wins, dogs closing +500 or higher have gone 2-72 this season for -60.31 units.
  • Favorites have fallen off a bit lately but have still gone 89-61 for +3.43 units.
  • Brighton (+8.02 units) have regained the top spot as most profitable club on the moneyline, followed by Tottenham (+6.47 u) and Watford (+5.95 u).

Will the Premier League see a big upset for the third consecutive weekend?

Below I’ve analyzed the betting market for every match and provided three value plays (17-34-1 season record, -5.57 units).

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)


Saturday (8 Matches)

This weekend starts out in Bournemouth where the hosts will try to take out a quality Liverpool side at 7:30 a.m. ET (NBC Sports). The Reds were fortunate to beat Everton over the weekend on this ridiculous goal, but responded nicely with a 3-1 comeback victory at Burnley.

Oddsmakers and bettors don’t expect Liverpool to slip up as they’ve moved from -140 to -180 since opening.

Key players like Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino were able to rest a bit in midweek action, and the road side has accounted for more than 75% of bets. Add in all the parlays that they’ll be included in, and Liverpool are shaping up to be a liability.