Saturday Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monaco vs. Marseille (Jan. 23)
PASCAL GUYOT/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Monaco’s French forward Wissam Ben Yedder.
Monaco vs. Marseille Odds
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||beIN Sports XTRA|
Monaco and Marseille battle it out in the south of France on Saturday, as both are trying to keep pace with the top three in Ligue 1.
After a tough stretch of games, Monaco has found their form, winning four of their last five matches.It’s been a tale of two seasons for the home side as they’ve been great at home, losing only match on the season, but are terrible on the road. Can they keep their home form going against another top team in Ligue 1.
Marseille has fallen on hard times, as they only have one win in their last seven matches. In fact, they’ve lost two matches at home in a span of four days this week against teams below them in the table.
Marseille defeated Monaco a little over a month ago 2-1 at the Orange Vélodrome, so will they be able to pull off the sweep on Saturday afternoon?
Monaco has actually been better than their results have shown this season. The main reason for that is their defense is due for some positive regression. Currently, Les Monégasques have allowed 29 goals on the season, but only 22.20 xG.
In fact, over their last three matches, Monaco has allowed a total of 1.92 xG. Outside of PSG and Lyon, Monaco has the third best offense at 1.92 xG per match. Over their three match winning streak they’ve been creating a told of high quality chances, averaging 2.33 xG per match.
However, matches involving Monaco are typically free-flowing with a ton of chances at either end, which has led to 80% of Monaco’s matches going over 2.5 goals.
In fact, 10 of the last 11 matches between Marseille and Monaco have featured at least three goals.
This current bad run of form was bound to happen for Marseille eventually, as they are one of the most overrated teams in France. Marseille has a +7 goal differential for the season, but their expected goal differential is only +3.45. In fact, they have a -1.64 xGD on the road this season, so they are due for some more negative regression.
In the first matchup against Monaco, Marseille got out to a 2-0 lead fifteen minutes into the match and then went on cruise control. After the fifteen minute mark, Monaco completely dominated the match out creating Marseille 1.57 xG to 0.12 xG.
Marseille are also dealing with some injury issues at the moment as their starting central midfielder Boubacar Kamara and starting left back Jordan Amavi are both questionable to play on Saturday.
Betting Analysis & Picks
With how good Monaco is playing at the moment it’s hard to bet against them, especially when they’re creating so many high quality chances. So, I think the home side is going to get some revenge on Marseille the second time around.
I’ll back Monaco’s spread of -1 at +125 odds in hopes they pour it on a struggling Marseille side.
Pick: Monaco -1 (+125)