Arsenal vs. Liverpool Odds & Pick: How to Bet Saturday’s Premier League Showdown (April 3)
Justin Tallis – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal standout Bukayo Saka.
- Two of the Premier League's most storied clubs go at it Saturday when Arsenal hosts Liverpool in a huge meeting.
- The Reds, who lost their shot at successfully defending their league crown, might miss out on European football next season.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the match and explains why he likes the Gunners to pick up the victory below.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-132 / +107)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
One of England’s most historic soccer rivalries commences Saturday in Premier League action at Emirates Stadium
Arsenal and Liverpool, which are are both currently outside the top six in the standings, and desperate for points to qualify for European football next season.
The Reds are on a terrible run of form, with only two wins in their last eight league matches. They also have a huge Champions League fixture against Real Madrid on Tuesday, so they’re in quite a precarious spot.
As for their opponent, Mikel Arteta’s men are sitting in 10th place and need to go on a run if they’re going to finish inside the top six to qualify for European football. Arsenal was in a good run of form before the international break, going unbeaten in five consecutive league contests.
That said, a win over Liverpool could be just what Arsenal needs to finish inside the top six on the table.
The Reds have improved from their terrible start to the season, but it hasn’t been a dramatic turnaround. The Gunners’ offense has improved from only scoring 1.10 xG per match before Christmas to scoring 1.66 xG per match after the holiday. The emergence of Real Madrid loanee Martin Ødegaard, along with young sensation Bukayo Saka, have taken the Emirates by storm.
Arteta typically plays out of a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is the most common setup in modern football. The formation allows Arsenal to deploy three attacking midfielders going forward, which can overwhelm opposing defenses. It has allowed Ødegaard and Saka to create a ton of chances like this below.
— Joshua Queiroga (@JoshuaQueiroga) February 25, 2021
They should be able to create a ton of opportunities against Liverpool’s defense that is still without its top three center backs.
Things have gone from bad to worse for Jürgen Klopp’s men, who are now in danger of not even qualifying for the Europa League. The Reds have lost six of their last eight league games, with their usually high-powered offense going completely dormant.
Since the beginning of February, Liverpool has created just 1.29 expected goals per match, compared to 2.07 xG in its first 14 fixtures of the season. The massive injuries to a lot of its defenders has taken its toll as well, as the Reds have allowed a whopping 13.50 xG in their last eight contests.
The Reds have a major tactical problem at the moment. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives teams fits.
Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps teams from playing long balls up the field, causing most opponents to spend less time on the ball since they’re forced to make quick passes.
With Liverpool’s top three center backs out for the rest of the season, its had to back off its high press so its fill-in defenders aren’t exposed. So, the Reds could have some trouble with Arsenal’s attacking midfielders.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Given the recent forms of both teams, I really think the Gunners have the advantage here. Arsenal’s attack going forward should be able to overwhelm Liverpool’s defense, while the Reds’ offense is likely going to continue to struggle since the Gunners are allowing only 1.18 xG per match.
Therefore, I am going to back the Gunners via the Draw No Bet line at +130 odds via DraftKings as my top pick.
Pick: Arsenal — Draw No Bet (+130)