Manchester United vs. Manchester City Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet the Manchester Derby (Dec. 12)

Manchester United vs. Manchester City Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet the Manchester Derby (Dec. 12) article feature image
Credit:

Dave Thompson/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United captain Kevin De Bruyne, right, and his teammates.

  • It's always worth watching when Manchester City travels to Old Trafford to take on Man United in the Manchester Derby.
  • It's been an up and down season for both clubs, but City come in as favorites and look to have finally found their form in 2020/21.
  • Should you bet on the Cityzens to get all three points on Saturday?

Manchester United vs. Manchester City Odds

Man U Odds +340 [BET NOW]
Man City Odds -139 [BET NOW]
Draw +325 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+132) [BET NOW]
Time 12:30 p.m. ET
TV NBC | fuboTV

Odds updated as of Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


There is nothing better than an old-fashioned Manchester Derby.

And come Saturday, we get the latest chapter in this bitter rivalry when Manchester City travels to Manchester United for another highly anticipated showdown at Old Trafford.

The visiting Cityzens enter this match fresh off a 3-0 shutout win over Marseille, closing out the group stage of Champions League play in style. United States international Zack Steffen earned the clean sheet in the win.

On the other side, things did not go as well for Manchester United. The Red Devils were eliminated from the competition via its 3-2 defeat to German outfit RB Leipzig. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær and his troops went down 3-0 in the match, but rallied for two goals deep in the second half.

Unfortunately, Manchester United and couldn’t find that late, third goal to earn a draw that would have secured its spot in the knockout round.

Let’s take a look at these foes and see what could be in store for this battle.

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Manchester United

The Red Devils have to find a way to put their Champions League woes behind them in a quick fashion if they’re going to be competitive in this contest.

Obviously, that midweek loss in Germany is going to sting for quite some time, but Manchester United has been cruising in its league fixtures as of late. The Red Devils have the longest current winning streak going at the moment, having won four consecutive matches.

Most recently, the Red Devils earned a 3-1 win over West Ham United. Prior to that, Edinson Cavani came off the bench to score two second-half goals in Manchester United’s come-from-behind 3-2 victory over Southampton.

The Red Devils are getting it done in many ways, with seemingly different players stepping up every time out in these triumphant performances.

When it comes to the statistical data, Manchester United has actually put together some strong through its positive results. The Red Devils currently sit on a decent 15.2 xGs and solid 13.4 expected goals against, generating a modest +1.8 xGDiff and +0.19 for xGDiff/90 minutes.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Manchester City

The Cityzens enter this match in perhaps their finest form of the season. That win against Marseille marked the fifth consecutive shutout performance across all competitions for Manchester City, which continues to be led by captain Kevin De Bruyne and that aforementioned stingy defense.

Recently, the Cityzens took full advantage of some easy matchups in league play in their last two fixtures, cruising to a 5-0 rout of Burnley and 2-0 win over Fulham to keep making that push toward league-leader Tottenham Hotspur at the top of the table.

If manager Pep Guardiola’s crew can put together a similar performance any of its most recent efforts, Manchester United is going to be up against it.

As for the comparison to Manchester United in the advanced metrics, the visiting side dominated its intracity foe in all similar categories.

The Cityzens have generated a subpar 17.1 xGs, yet respectable 9.8 expected goals against that result in a +7.3 xGDiff and +0.73 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

Manchester City is first in xGA in England’s top flight, with Brighton & Hove Albion (11.0 xGA) the next closest in the 20-team league. The Cityzens are third in xGDiff, trailing Liverpool and Chelsea (8.5 xGDiff) on the table.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

I really believe oddsmakers have this one pegged right on the number, with Manchester City as the big favorite in this spot.

Despite being the hosts being in better overall league form, the Cityzens are the stronger side overall and start matches stronger than the Red Devils.

That said, I am backing Manchester City to grab all three points with a derby win. Expect De Bruyne and the Cityzens to put the pedal to the floor early, creating a hole too big for Manchester United to claw its way out of en route to a bitter defeat at Old Trafford.

I will also back the total going over the number as well. Everything points to a low-scoring affair when you look at the fact that five of their last six meetings have finished with fewer than three goals across all competitions.

Plus, the total has stayed under 2.5 goals in seven of Manchester City’s last eight games and Manchester United’s last three home fixtures in league play. Yet, despite that, I expect an exciting tilt with no shortage of goals.

Combine the fact Manchester City and Manchester United have combined to scored a whopping 24 goals over their last 10 matches, and I love my chances of hitting this play.

Picks: Manchester City ML (-139) | Total Over 2.5 Goals (-165)

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