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Saturday Soccer Expert Picks: Best Bets For Manchester City vs. Brentford & Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace (Nov. 12)

Saturday Soccer Expert Picks: Best Bets For Manchester City vs. Brentford & Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace (Nov. 12) article feature image
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James Gill/Getty. Pictured: Pep Guardiola.

Saturday is for college football, we know that, but with a full slate of soccer odds released and no American football kick off until 12 p.m. ET, why not dive into the other version of football for a few wagers as we approach college football time.

Below, BJ Cunningham and Brett Pund and have identified their top bets to make across the global soccer world.

Read on to see how our experts are taking advantage of the Saturday soccer slate with their best bets on Manchester City vs. Brentford and Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace.

Our 2 Global Saturday Best Bets

Manchester City vs. Brentford

City Odds -800
Brentford Odds +1800
Draw +800
Over/Under 3.5 (-108 / -112)
Time 7:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Erling Haaland and Riyad Mahrez are the only two regular starters for Manchester City that are not going to the World Cup and Joao Cancelo is out.

So, you have to imagine that Pep Guardiola and the City players will be putting the handbrake on for the entire match, while Brentford will be happy to sit in a low block. Guardiola has already been playing with a little bit of a handbrake given how slow and intricate Manchester City have been playing this season.

City are averaging a sequence time of 16.14, averaging 5.59 passes per sequence and have a direct speed of 1. All of those numbers not only lead the Premier League, but are tops among Europe’s big five leagues.

Brentford have performed well defensively versus the big six this season. They held Manchester United to 1 xG, Arsenal only created 1.5 xG against them and Chelsea only created 0.9 xG against them as well.

When they played Manchester City at the Etihad last season it was a similar situation where it was a match in the middle of a completely congested schedule. City won 2-0 and only 2.4 xG were created in the match.

Plus, Brentford matches are averaging 2.43 non-penalty xG, while Manchester City matches are averaging 2.46 non-penalty xG. If City go ahead, I expect them to put a stranglehold on possession and shut the game down.

I only have 2.84 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.

Pick: Under 3.5 (-112)

Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace

Forest Odds +210
Palace Odds +240
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -146)
Day | Time 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Pund: Oddsmakers are expecting a close encounter here, and I also feel that this one could be headed towards a stalemate in the opening half.

No team has gone into halftime tied more than Crystal Palace this season, with seven of the Eagles’ 13 matches ending the opening half in a draw. Meanwhile, Forest falls just behind them with 7-of-14 fixtures going into the half tied.

You also have to look at the home and road splits for the sides. Starting with the visitors, manager Patrick Vieira’s team has held a shutout in 4-of-6 matches away from Selhurst Park and failed to score in half of those fixtures.

As for Forest, this same bet has cashed in five of the last six games, including three straight at home.

I also don’t hate a bet on the full match to end in a draw at +220, but I’ll condense this to just the opening half based on the numbers laid out above.

Pick: First Half Draw (+101)

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