Schalke vs. Union Berlin: Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions (Sunday, June 7)
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Schalke at Union Berlin Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks
|Union Berlin odds||+135
|Time||Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET|
Sunday morning’s matchup between 10th-place Schalke and 14th-place Union Berlin features the two worst teams in the Bundesliga based on current form.
In eight combined matches since the league returned, Schalke and Union have combined for exactly one point. Schalke have lost four in a row, while Berlin picked up a draw against Mainz, surrounded by three uncompetitive losses by multiple goals.
Defensive issues aside, it’s been goal-scoring that has been the predominant issue for both sides. Bundesliga newcomers Union Berlin have slid down to 16th in expected goals for this year, while Schalke sit 17th. Both average barely more than 1.0 xGF per game.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Union have scored just two goals in its last four matches and created just 2.2 xG. Entering Sunday, Union is three points clear of Dusseldorf for 16th, so any point would be crucial entering the final four matches as they try to avoid being relegated straight back to the German second division.
After a promising start to the season, Schalke have lacked continuity, energy and form since returning from the two month layoff. There are rumors circulating that manager David Wagner has lost the locker room, and the results on the pitch indicate that may be true.
Schalke have scored one goal in four matches, failed to generate more than 0.8 xG in any of those games, and have been outplayed by bottom six teams Werder Bremen, Dusseldorf and Augsburg.
While Schalke’s defense has struggled of late, conceding four to Dortmund, two to Dusseldorf and three to Augsburg, their season-long numbers are above average.
Schalke rank seventh with 41.8 xGA and have defended corners well, which is a major Union strength in attack, as Die Eisernen have scored eight goals off corners this season. Schalke’s ability to keep Union off the board, while also being inept in attack themselves makes for a low-scoring battle.
Both teams are in such bad form that I can’t reasonably bet on either of them to come out with a win here. When Schalke has trailed this season, they have scored five goals while conceding the next goal 19 times. For Union, that gap is seven for and 21 against. Neither team is good at playing from behind, and that’s why I see value on a game prop here.
I don’t envision a high-scoring affair, but instead of taking the Under 2.5 with extra juice, I’ll take the no option on both teams to score, thinking if one team does score, it will be difficult for the trailing side to break them down and get on the board themselves.