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AC Milan vs. Roma Picks: Odds, Best Bets and Predictions for Monday’s Serie A Match (Oct. 26)

AC Milan vs. Roma Picks: Odds, Best Bets and Predictions for Monday’s Serie A Match (Oct. 26) article feature image

Russell Cheyne/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: AC Milan star Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

  • Unbeaten AC Milan hosts Roma in Serie A action Monday at San Siro Stadium. Can the Rossoneri maintain its perfect record or is there a live underdog coming to town?
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and gives us two bets to consider for Monday afternoon:

AC Milan vs. Roma Odds

AC Milan Odds +104 [BET NOW]
Roma Odds +250 [BET NOW]
Draw +265 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-162/+130) [BET NOW]
Time Monday, 3:45 p.m. ET

Odds updated as of Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

If you like exciting Italian soccer, you’re in for a treat Monday when unbeaten AC Milan hosts Roma in Serie A action at San Siro Stadium.

AC Milan has been brilliant thus far in the league play, boasting a perfect 4-0 record to start its campaign in Italy’s top flight.

On the other side, Roma enters the match, sitting in seventh place on the table with a 2-1-1 record for seven points. The club is actually level with Hellas Verona and Lazio but finds itself below both due to the tiebreaker.

Let’s take a deeper look at the sides in what should be an entertaining affair:

AC Milan

The legendary Italian club commenced its Europa League fixtures with a convincing, yet mediocre, 3-1 win over Celtic on Thursday in Glasgow. The Rossoneri essentially went through the motions after jumping out to a 2-0 lead and went on cruise control from there.

Prior to that match, the Serie A leaders earned a 2-1 victory over rival Inter in the latest chapter of the Derby della Madonnina in league play. Zlatan Ibrahimović struck for a brace, scoring twice inside a three-minute span early in the half to lead the club to all three points.

It was the first fixture in which the Rossoneri gave up a goal, having notched three consecutive shutouts in the games before that rivalry tilt. The club blanked Bologna and Crotone by 2-0 margins before 3-0 win against Spezia.

The Rossoneri are the definition of stellar when it comes to the data, sitting on 9.4 expected goals and  3.8 expected goals against this season. That results in a +5.6 xGDiff and +1.40 xGDiff/90 minutes, which are tops in the entire league.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


After stumbling out of the gate with a 3-0 shutout loss to Hellas Veronas and 2-2 draw against Italian giant Juventus, the visitors have gotten back on track by reeling off consecutive wins against Udinese (1-0) and Benevento (5-2).

The club picked up even more confidence during its 2-1 midweek victory against Young Boys in Europa League action.

Edin Džeko and Jordan Veretout have been leading the Roma line, which could not be playing better at the moment.

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When comparing its statistics against AC Milan, Roma showcases some of the best overall numbers in the league. The Yellow and Reds (or I Giallorossi in Italian) have 9.7 xG and 5.3 xGA, resulting in a +4.4 xGDiff and +1.08 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Roma’s xGDiff ranks second overall behind AC Milan, and its xGDiff/90 minutes is third-best among the league’s 20 teams.

AC Milan-Roma pick

This has the makings of a wild, back-and-forth affair. Obviously, AC Milan is going to be the convincing favorite, but you can’t sleep on Roma and the form it has displayed as of late.

That said, I think the Yellow and Reds are catching the Serie A front runner at the right time, and I will back the visitor getting a half-goal as the underdog in this spot. Džeko, Veretout and Pedro have been on their games for Roma, which has won five of its last league fixtures, so I like my chances.

I will also play the total to go over the number as well. Combine the fact there have been at least 12 goals in Roma’s last 13 league affairs with AC Milan, scoring at least twice in six consecutive league games, and you have the making for some fireworks on the pitch.

Picks: Roma +0.5 (-122); Total Over 2.5 Goals (-162)

[Bet the AC Milan-Roma match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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