Atalanta vs. Sassuolo Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Jan. 3)
Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Francesco Caputo.
- Trendy Serie A sides face off Sunday when Atalanta hosts Sassuolo in Serie A action.
- Atalanta, which is adjusting to life without Alejandro Gomez, hope to make up ground on its fourth-place opponent.
- Dillon Essma breaks down the match and gives his top plays below.
Atalanta vs. Sassuolo Odds
|Atalanta Odds||-186 [BET NOW]|
|Sassuolo Odds||+440 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+360 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+112/-137) [BET NOW]|
|Time||9 a.m. ET|
We will start Sunday morning off right with an awesome matchup in Serie A, as Atalanta takes on Sassuolo in Bergamo.
Sassuolo sit above Atalanta in the table entering this game, which is a surprise to us all. Atalanta do have a game in hand, and a win would cut the gap to one point.
When fully healthy, both sides are electric. This should have goals in it.
Atalanta sit seventh in the Serie A table in what has been an up-and-down season. It is safe to say they have underperformed their underlying metrics, as well as our expectations. The winter break could have done them some good to get some rest and refresh their legs.
Atalanta’s recent form has been confusing, to be honest. The draw against Juventus on Dec. 16 was a superb result since the Bianconeri won the xG battle, 2.70-0.91, according to Understat.
That was the last time we saw Atalanta captain Alejandro “Papu” Gomez, and next up for them was a matchup with a very in-form Roma side. Atalanta came back and won, 4-1, which was shocking. Atalanta followed that up by blowing a two-goal lead against Bologna, a team they should beat every time they play, for a draw.
It sounds like Gomez is on his way out at Atalanta, which means they will need to find some consistency to finish in the top four again.
The advanced numbers are a bit more flattering to the boys from Bergamo. A non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) of 11.24 puts them fourth in Serie A, just ahead of league-leading AC Milan.
They are a bit further back in the table due to some unlucky bounces on the defensive side, having conceded 20 goals on just 15.60 expected goals against (xGA). Atalanta have scored 28 goals on 26.08 xG.
It’s tough to peg where Atalanta are at exactly. They still have players capable of greatness, but I’m afraid they will lack stability without their leader in Gomez. Players like strikers Josip Ilicic and Duvan Zapata will still have moments like they did against Roma, but I’m just less sure Atalanta are a top-four side without their talisman.
I’m not sure they should be a large favorite against any side in the top eight right now. I need to see more of them without Papu.
Sassuolo are another trendy favorite in Serie A, not too dissimilar from Atalanta. They’re a smaller club with a smart manager and some really talented attacking players.
The club have dealt with significant injury issues this season, so sitting fourth in the table is especially impressive. Striker Francesco Caputo has missed five matches this season, and it has had a significant impact.
With him back in the squad, I think we will see a more lethal attack than we have the last few weeks. Caputo returned for Sassuolo’s 3-2 win over Sampdoria last week. Sassuolo generated 2.16 xG in that match, their most since Oct. 18.
Due to the fitness issues at the club, it should be of no surprise Sassuolo’s NPxGD ranks ninth in Serie A at -1.64. That is below the likes of Udinese and Fiorentina (yikes). While they have been a bit fortunate on both ends of the pitch so far this season, I do think that xG number will increase with a fully fit side.
Because of that, I think this line is off. Models and bookmakers will sometimes look past the impact of an individual player, especially when it’s a lesser-known player like Caputo on a lesser-known side like Sassuolo. This line is accurate for what Sassuolo have been without Caputo, which is average according to their xG numbers.
Atalanta at -186 is 40 cents too high in my opinion, and Sassuolo are great value on Sunday because of that disconnect.
I think this game has some goals in it, so I do like Over 3.25 (-114) or Over 3.5 (+112). This game will just need one first-half goal to open up. Neither Atalanta or Sassuolo play for draws and have a myriad of offensive weapons.
I also have to play Sassuolo +1 (-103) or +1.25 (-136). I just think this is a good value spot, before the odds move on a Sassuolo side that should improve with their Talisman back.
Picks: Total Over 3.25 (-114) | Sassuolo +1.25 (-136)