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Updated Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our 3 Best Bets, Including AC Milan vs. Inter Milan

Updated Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our 3 Best Bets, Including AC Milan vs. Inter Milan article feature image
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Marco Luzzani/Getty Images. Pictured: Inter Milan standout Lautaro Martinez.

Serie A is back with its fifth week of action in the 2022-23 campaign. And boy, do we have a top-notch slate in front of us.

Just on Saturday, we’ll see three matches between sides that all finished in the top seven last season, with none bigger than a clash between Inter Milan and AC Milan that will likely have title implications.

So, how should bettors attack this loaded card in the Italian top flight? Let’s take a look and see where I’ve landed for me three best bets for this weekend’s action.

Our Serie A Best Bets

Fiorentina vs. Juventus

Fiorentina Odds +195
Juventus Odds +145
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -145)
Day | Time Saturday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Bookmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair in this fixture and I have to agree with that assessment.

Bottom line, both offenses have turned in disappointing performances week after week to start the season. As it stands, Juventus ranks 10th in the league in big chances created, while Fiorentina is 15th in the same category. In terms of expected-goal metrics, Juventus is ninth and Fiorentina ranks 12th overall.

Plus, these head-to-head matchups have proven quite drab of late. Just over the last four fixtures between these sides, there have been an average of 1.65 COMBINED xG, with at least one side failing to create at last one xG in three of those four encounters, per fbref.com.

Given both clubs have proven reliable under teams to start the campaign and Juventus faces a midweek Champions League fixture at PSG, I’m going to take a look at an alternate total to avoid the heavy juice on 2.5 goals.

By The Numbers

  • 2 — Combined big scoring chances between Fiorentina and Juventus in last season’s meetings.
  • 1.13 — Fiorentina xG/90 minutes since selling standout Dusan Vlahovic.

Hennion’s Pick: Total Under 2 Goals (+130)

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AC Milan vs. Inter Milan

AC Milan Odds +160
Inter Milan Odds +165
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
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More power to you if you’re backing a side in this match since I have little separating these two teams.

That said, where I do see an avenue of getting involved is in the “First Team To Score” prop market. Last season, Inter proved extremely capable of bagging the first goal when playing the league’s best opposition. In 10 fixtures against the remaining top six Italian sides, Inter got on the scoreboard first in eight of those fixtures, including both meetings with AC Milan.

Meanwhile, the Rossoneri proved inadequate in terms of this same measure. Obviously, the sample includes the two games against Inter in which it failed to score first. However, in nine contests against the five sides immediately below it in the table that saw a goal, Milan conceded first in five of those matches.

Plus, in two head-to-head meetings, Inter established itself as far and away the better first-half outfit. Across both fixtures, the Nerazzurri generated 3.17 xG in the opening frame compared to only 0.81 for Milan, per fotmob.com.

Given Inter’s continued strength in first halves this season — 3.81 combined xG in four opening frames — expect it to score first and put the onus on Milan to chase the game and a result.

By The Numbers

  • 11 — Number of big scoring chances for Inter Milan in first four Serie A fixtures.
  • 3.97 — Total xG combined for Inter vs. Milan last season.

Hennion’s Pick: Inter Milan — To Score the First Goal (+100)

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Lazio vs. Napoli

Lazio Odds +190
Napoli Odds +135
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Defenses be darned. This match is a chance for the attacks to (allegedly) shine.

For me, I’m more interested in getting involved with the host, as I think Lazio provides a great opportunity to sell high on the Napoli defense. Across its last 21 home fixtures, manager Maurizio Sarri’s side has created 1.55 xG per 90 minutes and scored at least two goals in 14 of those 21 matches, per fbref.com.

On the flip side, Napoli’s normally reliable defense has proven shaky at times away from home. Just in its previous nine road Serie A fixtures, it has conceded 1.21 xG per 90 minutes and has only kept three clean sheets.

Although it has conceded just 0.71 xGAm per 90 minutes in four fixtures this season, that came against Verona, Monza, Fiorentina and Lecce. That’s a grouping I would hardly describe as a great quartet of offenses.

With Napoli also facing a midweek UCL fixture, expect some rotation and for its defense to concede at least twice at the Stadio Olimpico.

By The Numbers

  • 2 — Lazio big scoring chances vs. Napoli at home last season.
  • 6 — Total big chances for Lazio through four matches this campaign. 

Hennion’s Pick: Lazio — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+130)

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