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Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Atalanta vs. Juventus (Feb. 12-13)

Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Atalanta vs. Juventus (Feb. 12-13) article feature image
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Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Juventus standout Weston McKennie.

Our last trio of Serie A plays definitely could have gone better, but a late winner helped salvage the weekend.

Napoli covered as the road favorite against Napoli, while half of our Lazio vs. Fiorentina total play emerged a loser. And both halves of Inter Milan pick at -0.75 on the spread line wound up going negatively in that match. Those results bring our record to 7-8-3 on the season.

With a new set of fixtures upon us in the Italian top flight, that gives us another chance to present our three best bets. Without further delay, here’s what I’m targeting on the weekend slate.

Serie A Best Bets

Napoli vs. Inter

Napoli Odds +175
Inter Odds +160
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Day | Time Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
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Goals came quite easily in the reverse meeting at San Siro Stadium, but the change of venue makes this is an entirely different game.

Without question, Napoli is the best home defense in the league. Through 12 home matches, Napoli have only allowed 7.4 combined expected goals and one or more xG three times, per fbref.com.

In evaluating Napoli’s five home fixtures against top-half opposition, there are signals to support a low-scoring affair. The Azzurri have kept four of five top-half visitors to a goal or fewer and three of five to under two big scoring chances.

Meanwhile, Inter is due for some negative offensive regression away from home. Through 11 road fixtures, the Nerazzurri have posted 24 goals on 21.8 xG overall. Simplify that down to their road matches against top-half sides and bettors will find Inter have scored 11 goals on just over nine xG this season.

However, this is also an Inter side that has produced good defensive performances against Napoli. In the last four head-to-head meetings, Napoli has eclipsed the 1.5 xG mark only once.

And even though Inter’s defense has sputtered as of late — it has conceded 1.5-plus xGA in three of its last four games — the fact remains Napoli has failed to generate more than 1.2 xG in its last four against top-half opposition.

With first place on the line, expect a low-scoring contest and back the total staying under 2.75 goals on the Asian Handicap at -125 odds.

Pick: Total Under 2.75 Goals (-125)

Sassuolo vs. Roma

Sassuolo Odds +235
Roma Odds +110
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (-170 / +140)
Day | Time Sunday | 12 p.m. ET
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If Sassuolo didn’t feature a high-powered offense, I would be all over Roma.

Yet, because I’m wary of Roma’s defense, I’m staying away from the sides all together. However, Sassuolo’s underlying metrics against top-half clubs are quite concerning and Roma should have its way offensively.

Against the top half this season, Sassuolo has conceded 21 times, but on 23.5 xGA, per fbref.com. That 11-match average of 1.96 xGA per 90 minutes is 0.35 xGA worse than Sassuolo’s season-long average of 1.61 xGA per 90 minutes.

On the flip side, Roma has bossed around the bottom half this season. In 13 matches against the 10 worst sides, The Yellow and Reds have scored 23 goals, but on 25.6 xG overall. That average of 1.97 xG per 90 minutes bests its season-long average by nearly 0.3 xG so far.

Lastly, Roma has historically absolutely dominated Sassuolo. In the last five head-to-head meetings, it has produced 1.5 xG and at least two big scoring chances in four outings.

I lean to Roma as a side, especially considering how fortunate Sassuolo has been in fixtures against the top half (-2 goal differential on -11 xGDiff), but a team total feels safer.

Pick: Roma — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-135)

Atalanta vs. Juventus

Atalanta Odds +190
Juventus Odds +155
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -105)
Day | Time Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Luck has come in spades for Atalanta in this fixture, as it has lost four consecutive meetings on xG, but has earned a result in all four of them.

If that trend didn’t exist, I’d consider backing Atalanta on its Draw No Bet line at +100 odds or better. However, I can’t in good faith back a side that has come out second best in these kind of fixtures.

That said, there are some curious totals for this match that have me intrigued. Even though over 2.5 goals is a favorite, both sides’ team totals are juiced to under 1.5 goals, with Atalanta at -175 and Juventus sitting at -150 odds.

That, combined with a few key defensive trends for each side, leads me to believe this could emerge a low-scoring contest. Both are playing on short rest due to midweek Coppa Italia games, so expect some lineup rotation.

Further, both arrive at this fixture sitting top six in the xGA per 90 minutes table (Juventus is second; Atalanta is located in sixth) and enter in good defensive form. Atalanta has conceded only 3.4 xGA in its last five Serie A games, while Juventus has posted 4.9 xGA in its last five matches.

Given top-four positioning is on the line, expect a tight contest with few goal opportunities at either end of the pitch. For that reason, I’m backing the total staying under 2.75 goals on the Asian Handicap at -130 odds.

Pick: Total Under 2.75 Goals (-130)

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