Tuesday Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Inter Milan Betting Preview (Sept. 28)

Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Inter Odds

Shakhtar and Inter meet once again in the Champions League after facing off twice in the group stage last year with both matches ending in a 0-0 draw.

Shakhtar dropped their opening match of the group stage losing on the road at Moldovan outfit FC Sheriff 2-0. Shakhtar will need to rebound quickly and should be able to do so after earning a couple of resounding victories in their domestic campaign the past two weekends. The question now is if they can hold Inter to a similar result as their two meetings last season?

Inter is off to a fantastic start to the the Serie A season, going unbeaten in their first six matches while scoring a whopping 20 goals. There were a lot of question marks surrounding their offense after the departure of Romelu Lukaku, but those question marks seemed to have been put to bed.

However, after dropping their opening group stage match at home to Real Madrid, Inter can't afford another loss on the road in Kiev on Tuesday.

Shakhtar Donetsk Revamped, Improved

This time around Shakhtar will have a full fit squad because in their first meeting last season, Shakhtar had seven starters out due to a COVID outbreak and still held Inter to a 0-0 draw in Kiev.

It is also an improved Shakhtar team because they spent some money during the transfer window bringing in Pedrinho, who is a talented winger from Benfica, Marlon, who has been a starting center back for Sassuolo the past few years, and Lassina Traore from Ajax, who is another talented winger. 

Shakhtar did lose their opening match to FC Sheriff, which is cause for concern, but since that defeat they have two resounding wins in the Ukrainian Premier League beating Mariupol and Veres by a combined scored of 9-1.

Also, the expected goals battle was Sheriff 1.04 to Shakhtar 0.85, Shakhtar held 86% of the possession, and Shakhtar had 40 touches in the penalty area, compared to Sheriff's 16. So, I think we will see a much more improved performance on home soil.

Inter Looking to Continue Hot Start

After, losing their manager Antonio Conte, their top striker, Romelu Lukaku, who scored 30 goals and carrying a 0.73 xG per 90-minute scoring rate, and their star right wingback Achraf Hakimi, it seemed like Inter was heading in a downward spiral. Inter has seemed to prove the doubters wrong so far this season, at least on the domestic front.

Inter is unbeaten through their first six matches with a +7.13 xGDiff, which is very impressive given the circumstances. However, they haven't exactly played murderers' row, as they've only faced one club that was in the top eight last season. 

Also, Inter may have some tired legs coming into this Champions League encounter with this being their sixth match in the last 17 days. On top of all of that, it's over 1,000 miles to get to Kiev, and it's going to be below 50 degrees, which is a lot colder than Inter is used to this season.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I only have Inter projected as a +122 favorite, so I think there's some value on Shakhtar to get a result from this match. That said I'm going to take their spread of +1 at +105 odds via DraftKings and would play it down to -130 odds.

Pick: Shakhtar +1 (+105)