Soccer Betting Picks: The Monday Serie A Bet for Roma vs Salernitana

It's a big weekend across Europe with the Bundesliga title hanging in the balance along with top four and relegation fights heating up as we close out the season.

If you'd like to see my projections for the Premier League, along with all three European competitions (Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League), you can find them here.

If you'd like to listen to the audio form of this article, I am also part of the Wondergoal Podcast with my co-hosts Michael Leboff and Anthony Dabbundo.

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Bundesliga

Projections

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig

Since Thomas Tuchel has taken over it has not been smooth sailing at Bayern Munich. They are in poll position to win another Bundesliga title, but his tactical philosophy is much different than that of the previous Bayern manager Julian Naglesmann.

Naglesmann was a full throttle counter-pressing high defensive line advocate that saw Bayern trounce lesser competition that couldn’t play out of the back against them. With the wealth of attackers they had, Naglesmann put a premium on overloading the last line of the defense, which made them incredibly successful not only in the Bundesliga, but in the Champions League as well.

Tuchel is more pragmatic, and he values possession and slow build up rather than quick transitions, which is what he prioritized back in the day at Dortmund. So far under his tenure, Bayern have held over 60% in every Bundesliga match outside of his first match in charge against Dortmund.

This is not a good recipe when you are going up against a defense of RB Leipzig’s caliber. Since Marco Rose took over for RB Leipzig on September 8th, RB Leipzig have +1.11 npxGD per 90 minutes. They have a style of play that can give Bayern Munich a lot of problems. Their previous match against them out of the World Cup break is a perfect example. Bayern controlled 58% possession, but Leipzig held them to just seven shots and the goal was the only one with an xG rating over 0.10. Under Rose, they’re allowing only 0.81 npxG per 90 minutes.

I only have Bayern Munich projected at -131, so I like the value on RB Leipzig +1 at +102.

Pick: RB Leipzig +1 (+102 via BetRivers) 

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Serie A

Projections

Roma vs Salernitana

The biggest under-performing team at home in a must win spot against the biggest over-performing team, who is pretty much safe from relegation? Sign me up.

Jose Mourinho’s Roma have been outstanding this season in Serie A. They’ve gone through a rough patch and have been more focused on the Europa League, but they have beaten up on lesser competition in Italy.

Against the bottom half of the Serie A table, Roma have a +1.11 xGD per 90 minutes and are only allowing 0.77 xG per 90 minutes against those teams as well. That is because Roma are one of the best defensive teams across Europe and make it incredibly difficult to get the ball into their penalty area. Roma have the best final third to penalty box conversion rate allowed across Europe’s top five leagues at 19.48%.

It’s honestly shocking that Salernitana are going to survive relegation this season. They have the worst xG differential in Serie A at -28.3 because they’ve drastically over-performed both offensively and defensively.

It’s a defense that doesn’t provide much resistance coming into their final third, which is good for Roma because the teams they’ve struggled against are the teams that can press them intensely and effectively. Salernitana are also one of the worst set piece defenses in Serie A, conceding the third-most xG off of them, while Roma have created the second-most xG off of set pieces.

With Roma battling for a European spot in a congested Serie A table, this match is crucial for them. I have Roma’s spread projected at -2.12, so I love the value on their spread of -1 at -130.

Pick: Roma -1 (-127 via BetRivers)

La Liga

Projections

Cadiz vs Real Valladolid

How about a relegation six pointer on Friday to kick off La Liga play?

If it weren’t for Elche and Almeria, these would be the two worst defenses in Spain. Both Cadiz and Valladolid are allowing more than 1.60 xG per match, without showing many signs of getting better.

Real Valladoild have been especially bad lately, conceding 20.7 xG in their last nine matches. These two teams are set up pretty similarly in how they are able to have success offensively. Valladolid have played five different formations in their last six matches and all of them are designed to attack teams in wide areas. Valladolid only have 23% of their attacks coming through the middle of the pitch, which is the third-lowest percentage in La Liga. Valladolid are also ninth in completing crosses into the penalty area, while Cadiz are second to last in defending them.

Cadiz are your typical bottom half of the table side in Spain. They play a 4-4-2 low defensive block, looking to hit teams in transition. Theyhave been good at attacking in wide areas, completing the seventh-most crosses into the penalty area, while Valladolid are 13th in defending crosses. Cadiz have been one of the worst offenses all season in La Liga, but they have run a little cold as of late and are due for positive regression scoring just three goals in their last six matches off of 6 xG.

With two teams that can attack in wide areas, primarily play in transition and can’t defend in transition or in wide areas, it’s going to create a very back and forth encounter with three points being vital to either club surviving relegation.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+120 via Caesars)

Ligue 1

Projections

Brest vs Clermont Foot

This is another “must-win” tax line with Brest needing a win and Clermont Foot already on the beach.

The Brest offense has been really bad this season. They’re only averaging 0.97 npxG per 90 minutes, which is third-lowest in France. They’re in the bottom half of the league in almost every single offensive category, including dead last in xG per set piece, while Clermont Foot are a top-five team in defending set pieces. Brest are also a team that needs to play in transition to be successful. They only have 37 total build up attacks on the season and are in the bottom five in passes per sequence, while also being top five in direct speed.

Clermont Foot are the No. 1 team in France in final third to penalty box entry conversion rate allowed, so they are at least decent at not only defending in transition, but also in a low block, daring Brest to break them down.

They came out of the gates over-performing like crazy and were do for some negative regression, but credit has to be given where credit is due because since we came back from the World Cup, Clermont Foot have a +0.65 npxGD.

I have this match projected right at a pick’em, so I like the value on Clermont Foot +0.5 at -136.

Pick: Clermont Foot +0.5 (-135 via BetMGM)