Juventus vs. Lazio Odds, Pick: Coppa Italia Match Prediction (Thursday, Feb. 2)
Nicolo Campo/Getty. Pictured: Federico Gatti.
Juventus vs. Lazio Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+115 / -145)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-115 / -115)|
|Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Juventus host Lazio in a crucial Coppa Italia match given the circumstances surrounding their season.
The Old Lady has been given a 15-point penalty in Serie A for false accounting practices, and Juve are now are sitting in the middle of the table instead of in a Champions League position.
Lazio are currently inside the top four in Serie A, but they are the definition of a paper tiger. They have some of the most unimpressive underlying metrics of any team sitting in a Champions League position across Europe.
Let’s dive into my Juventus vs. Lazio pick.
Juventus Better Than Circumstances Indicate?
Outside of the 15-point penalty, it’s been a good season so far for Juventus on paper. The club is sitting with a +13 goal differential, but the underlying metrics have been very concerning.
They only have a +7 xGD and their defense has run incredibly hot. So far this season, Juventus have only conceded 17 goals off of 22.2 xG. The reason for that is because they are putting a premium on defending their penalty area, as they’re not providing much resistance.
Juventus are 16th in offensive PPDA, 15th in ball recoveries per 90 minutes and 16th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed. On top of that, Juventus are dead last in Serie A in xG allowed per set piece, per The Analyst.
On the other end of the pitch, Juventus have been above-average offensively, garnering 1.33 npxG per 90 minutes, which is sixth in Serie A. However, they’re only ninth in touches in the penalty area and 10th in passes completed into the penalty area, so they have really had to rely on converting the high-quality chances that they get inside the box.
Lazio aren’t providing much resistance into their penalty area, which is how Juventus were able to beat them 3-0 right before the World Cup break.
Lazio Posting Exaggerated Results
Lazio has been the biggest over-performer in Europe, running on two years now, and the house of cards is going to fall at some point. So far this season in Serie A, Lazio has a +20 goal differential, but just a +4.9 xGD. The main reason for that is because they’ve run ridiculously hot offensively, scoring 36 goals on 26.7 xG.
Ciro Immobile returned to the lineup against Fiorentina, coming off the bench after a spell out due to injury. He is huge to their attack because he’s taking 2.97 shots per 90 minutes, which is significantly more than anyone else on the team.
Lazio are due for some negative regression defensively as well, as they’re allowing only 16 goals off of 21.9 xG. They’ve allowed teams to come right into their final third and get shots off, as they’re conceding 12.2 shots per 90 minutes, which is 12th in Serie A.
However, they have conceded the seventh-fewest big scoring chances in Italy, so their xG per shot allowed is one of the best in Serie A. They also aren’t the biggest pressing team, ranking 19th in PPDA, 11th in high turnovers and 19th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, but that is a dangerous game to play against a team like Juventus.
Juventus vs. Lazio Pick
This is a good spot to back Juventus given the circumstances surrounding the club. If they likely aren’t going to be playing in the Champions League, Coppa Italia and the Europa League become more important.
Juventus have been much better at home this season, putting up a +9.6 xGD and the Allianz Stadium versus a -2.8 xGD away from it.
I have Juventus projected at -120, so I like the value on them at home to get the win at +106 down to +100.
Pick: Juventus ML (+106 via Caesars)
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