Leicester City vs. Southampton: Sunday FA Cup Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (April 18)
James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Jamie Vardy.
- Leicester City and Southampton face off at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, with an FA Cup final appearance on the line.
- Chelsea awaits the winner, which will come from a matchup of teams that should create plenty of scoring chances.
- Matthew Trebby breaks down where he sees betting value in this semifinal match.
Leicester City vs. Southampton Odds
|Leicester City Odds||-115|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -113)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 1:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds as of Saturday morning via DraftKings.|
It’s the Premier League’s third-place team against the 14th in the FA Cup semifinals on Sunday, as Leicester City and Southampton square off at Wembley Stadium.
Leicester is looking for its first FA Cup Final berth since 1969 when it lost to Manchester City (seems likely to happen again all these years later), while Southampton has been in the final just once in the past 40 years.
Neither team enters this game on a good run of form, but some bet has to cash, so let’s figure out what that is.
The Foxes lost just twice in 20 games in all competitions between Dec. 6 and Feb. 21. They have now lost their last eight games to Slavia Prague, Arsenal, Manchester City and West Ham. Three of those defeats are excusable, but it’s a lack of chance creation that’s a concern.
There are two versions of Leicester City, and it depends on whether playmaker James Maddison is in midfield. With the Englishman in the team next to Youri Tielemans in the middle of the field, the Foxes have the ball more and create more. Without him, they’re reliant on the counterattack.
Maddison hasn’t played since April 3 because he, along with Hamza Choudhury and Ayoze Perez, breached the club’s COVID-19 protocol. It’s perfect timing that his punishment has been served just in time for a cup semifinal. The trio missed just one game, last weekend’s 3-2 loss to West Ham.
Getting Maddison back would be a huge boost, regardless of whether or not he starts. The biggest thing in the Foxes’ favor entering this game is their opponents’ defense.
Since knocking Arsenal out of the FA Cup in the fourth round back on Jan. 23, the Saints have not been marching very efficiently.
Southampton has won just four of its last 15 games in all competitions. It has conceded 35 goals in that span, although that total is inflated by giving away nine to Manchester United back in early February.
Over their last five games, the Saints have conceded 12 while scoring nine. Their last two Premier League meetings seem to indicate that chance creation isn’t the problem. Giving scoring opportunities away is.
Southampton had won just 1-of-10 Premier League games before beating Burnley, 3-2. The Saints won the expected goals battle, 1.9-1.8, indicating that things could have gone either way and their finishing won it.
Then, on Monday, Southampton threw that positive result down the window by losing 3-0 to bottom-of-the-table West Brom. Southampton let the Baggies register 2.9 xG, and it couldn’t convert any of its 2.1 xG into a real goal.
Nathan Redmond has been playing a more advanced role instead of on the wing, and he had a goal and an assist against Burnley before a dud against West Brom. Given the chance creation, he’ll likely keep his place, but Che Adams wouldn’t be a surprising inclusion in his place next to Danny Ings.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Unlike Saturday’s semifinal, which had defensive battle written all over it, both of these teams are scoring at a solid rate and creating plenty of chances. Leicester will likely control the ball more, especially with Maddison in the team, but Southampton isn’t going to back down and try to defend its way to the final.
Given the Saints’ impressive rate of chance creation of late, we’re going to live a little and back the over. These teams have nothing to lose, with Southampton poised to finish in Premier League purgatory, between the relegation zone and European places and Leicester making Champions League plans.
We’ll live a little and back the over in what has the potential to be a really fun cup semifinal.
Pick: Over 2.5 goals