Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Hotspur Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 13)
Tottenham Hotspur FC/Tottenham Hotspur FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Son Heung-min (left) and Harry Kane.
- Tottenham Hotspur hits the road Sunday to face Crystal Palace in Premier League action at Selhurst Park.
- Spurs are unbeaten in their last 10 matches, outscoring opponent by a combined 23-8 margin.
- BJ Cunningham breaks it all down and gives his top play for this intriguing matchup below.
Crystal Palace vs. Spurs Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+375 [BET NOW]|
|Spurs Odds||-134 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+275 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-118/-106) [BET NOW]|
|Time||9:15 a.m. ET|
Tottenham Hotspur looks to maintain its lead atop the Premier League table Sunday when it makes the short trip south to face Crystal Palace.
After losing its opening match of the season to Everton, Spurs have been on a path of destruction. The club is unbeaten in its last 10 matches, outscoring its opponent by a combined 23-8 margin. Spurs have won five of their last six matches, including a win over arch rival Arsenal last weekend in the North London Derby.
In contrast, Crystal Palace has had an absolute roller coaster of a season thus far. The Eagles are sitting in 11th place, putting together a 5-1-5 record in their first 11 matches.
Crystal Palace’s high point was a win over Manchester United at Old Trafford, with its low point a defeat at home to Newcastle two weeks back.
Spurs have had Crystal Palace’s number in the past, so the host side will have to play its best at Selhurst Park if it’s going the dethrone the league leaders.
Outside of Norwich City last season, Crystal Palace was the worst team in the league during the restart. However, the Eagles started this season as usual, finding their usual spot in the middle of the table.
The underlying metrics for Crystal Palace last season were not pretty, as it had the fourth-worst xGD in the league. However, this season the Eagles have drastically improved their xG numbers, as they only have a -2.06 xGD through their first 11 matches.
The biggest difference between the two seasons has been its offense. Crystal Palace is averaging 1.18 xG per match, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s a lot higher than its 0.74 xGF per match average during last season’s restart.
Spurs’ defense is due for some negative regression, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles give them some trouble.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The league power might be sitting atop the standings, but its underlying metrics have been terrible. Let’s take a trip down memory lane shall we:
Tottenham 2 – Manchester City 0:
Tottenham go top of the PL with a clinical performance. City must be sick of playing Spurs… #TOTMCI
— Infogol (@InfogolApp) November 21, 2020
Tottenham 2 – Arsenal 0:
Tottenham claim North London bragging rights in a game of very few chances.
— Infogol (@InfogolApp) December 6, 2020
As you can see, despite their spot spot in the table, Spurs are creating very few high-quality chances. They are eighth in xGF per match (1.58) in the league, averaging only 1.01 xGF/game in their last six.
The defense has been the strength of this team. Spurs have have turned up the defensive intensity, allowing only 0.89 xG/match in their last six fixtures.
Spurs are going to need to create better chances or the house of cards that is their title hope is going to come crashing down.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With how few chances both are creating to start the season, I think goals will be hard to come by in this meeting.
I have to total projected at 2.24, so I think there is a little bit of value on total going under the number.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-106)