Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: West Ham United vs. Leicester City (April 11)

Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: West Ham United vs. Leicester City (April 11) article feature image
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Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Wilfred Ndidi

West Ham vs. Leicester City Odds

West Ham Odds +195
Leicester City Odds +140
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-127 /+102)
Day | Time Sunday | 9:05 a.m. ET
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Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

The second of four Premier League matches on Sunday is critical to the top-four race, with both teams competing for a Champions League spot next season.

Here’s a closer look at West Ham and Leicester City, followed by how I’m betting it.

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West Ham

West Ham are the bigger surprise of these two clubs, entering the weekend in fourth place with 52 points — one point above Chelsea, and three points ahead of both Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, with eight matches remaining.

However, West Ham currently have just a 27% chance of finishing in the top four according to FiveThirtyEight, which prefers Liverpool (54%) and Chelsea (38%).

That’s in part because West Ham are only seventh in the league in xG (expected goal) differential, according to FBRef, at +5.3. Chelsea and Liverpool are well ahead of West Ham by that metric — second and third in the league at +22.1 and +18.3, respectively.

West Ham have been rather fortunate this season — including in their most recent match, a 3-2 win at Wolves in which they were outshot 20-9, and more than doubled up in xG, 2.5 to 1.2.

They’d also won only one of their previous four matches, a 2-0 victory over Leeds. Their other results during that stretch were losses at Manchester City (2-1) and Manchester United (1-0), and a draw with Arsenal (3-3).

Leicester City

Leicester City entered the weekend one place and four points above West Ham. They currently have a 65% chance of finishing in the top four according to FiveThirtyEight.

However, Leicester’s underlying numbers aren’t much better than West Ham’s. They are just sixth in xG differential, at +7.6. Leicester City are coming off a 2-0 loss at home to Manchester City in which they were outshot 12-5, and finished well short in terms of xG, by a final tally of 2.3 to 0.4.

Before that they’d recorded back-to-back wins over Sheffield United (5-0) and Brighton (2-1). But their previous two results were a draw with Burnley (1-1) and a defeat to Arsenal (3-1).

Beyond the league, Leicester City also advanced to the FA Cup semifinals via a 3-1 victory over Manchester United on March 21.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When these teams met way back in early October, West Ham won 3-0 at Leicester City, outshooting the Foxes 13-4. Michail Antonio scored one of the goals, but he will be out on Sunday, and that’s a big loss for West Ham.

Antonio has seven goals  and five assists in 21 league appearances this season. And midfielder Declan Rice is out as well.

Leicester City have actually been much better away from home, with 10 wins, four draws and just one defeat in 15 matches. Kelechi Iheanacho has provided a big boost in recent weeks, scoring in three straight matches (five goals in total) prior to the loss to Manchester City.

I like Leicester’s chance of consolidating their top-four position with a win on Sunday.

Pick: Leicester City (+140)

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