West Bromwich Albion vs. Liverpool Premier League Betting Odds, Preview & Picks: How to Bet Lopsided Matchup (May 16)
Zac Goodwin/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Sadio Mane.
- Liverpool heads to The Hawthorns on Sunday to take on a West Bromwich Albion squad destined for the second division.
- The Reds are heavy favorites, as they still have a lot to play for, sitting just four points out of a Champions League berth.
- With the level of the teams so lopsided, Matthew Trebby is making a play on the game's total.
West Brom vs. Liverpool Odds
|West Brom Odds||+1200|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-109 / -114)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
|Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
West Brom have already been relegated to the second division, while Liverpool are looking to ensure they’re in the Champions League next season.
The direction of these two clubs could not be any different, and that’s reflected in the odds. Liverpool are coming off a massive win over Manchester United, while West Brom can’t seem to get anything going their way.
Let’s break down where the betting value lies.
Baggies Have Nothing Going for Them
West Brom have nothing to play for. They are headed back down to the Championship after a season that saw them overwhelmed in the Premier League from the start of the season.
The Baggies are going to play 41 games this season, just one more than the minimum possible. That’s thanks to a win over Harrogate in Round 2 of the Carabao Cup. They were knocked out by Brentford and Blackpool in the two domestic cup competitions.
Through their first 35 Premier League games, West Brom won the expected goals (xG) battle just five times, according to FBref.com. They’re 18th in xG and 19th in expected goals allowed (xGA). They’re just 0.6 xG above Sheffield United in the race for the Premier League’s worst expected goal difference (xGD).
Liverpool Are in Form and Highly Motivated
Liverpool, meanwhile, have a lot to play for.
After a very impressive win over a busy Manchester United team on Thursday, the Reds are four points behind fourth-place Chelsea with a game in hand and three remaining. The Blues have matches against Leicester City and away to Aston Villa remaining, so dropping points is realistic. Liverpool, meanwhile, have West Brom and Burnley away, before closing the season against Crystal Palace at home.
Because the originally scheduled fixture against Manchester United was postponed, the Red Devils were playing their third match in five days on Thursday. Regardless, it was a strong performance from Liverpool.
Liverpool will be encouraged from getting two Roberto Firmino goals against United, as well as one from Diogo Jota.
Jota’s injury derailed Liverpool’s season last fall. He was just hitting form before being forced to the sidelines for a lengthy spell that saw the Reds become incredibly vulnerable, especially at Anfield.
Another big dip in form is from Sadio Mane, who is only at nine Premier League goals this season. He has reached double digits in every season in England since joining Southampton in 2014, including a combined 40 over the past two seasons for Liverpool. Mane did not start against United, so expect him to be back in the lineup for this game, which will be a great spot for him to start finishing his season on a high note.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’m expecting a Liverpool win, but the total being set at 3.5 is puzzling. Since a Feb. 13 loss to Leicester City, the Reds’ matches have gone over that total twice in 15 games.
I’ll take the under here, understanding that Liverpool could easily win 4-0 or 5-0. Their recent history just doesn’t support that happening.
Pick: Under 3.5 goals (-114)
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