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Sunday Soccer Odds, Expert Picks: How to Bet Real Sociedad vs. Valencia & Roma vs. Lazio

Sunday Soccer Odds, Expert Picks: How to Bet Real Sociedad vs. Valencia & Roma vs. Lazio article feature image
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NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Samuel Lino.

While Sunday is NFL day in America, not a single play will be run before 1 p.m. ET, meaning you have plenty of time to examine the soccer odds board and get your bets in on a different kind of football.

Below, Nick Hennion and Brett Pund have identified their top bets to make, with a catch: Each game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET or earlier, meaning they will get you through to the NFL slate.

Read on to see how our staff is playing the early morning slate of European soccer on Sunday.

Our 2 Sunday Best Bets

Real Sociedad vs. Valencia

Sociedad Odds -110
Valencia Odds +340
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+116 / -142)
Time 10:15 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Pund: Real Sociedad and Valencia have been two of the more improved squads in La Liga this season, but I think the home side is a bit overvalued in this spot.

For starters, this is not a good scheduling spot for Socieded, who hosted Manchester United in the Europa League on Thursday night in a match that featured many starters.

La Real also have just a +0.5 xGDiff at home this season according to fbref.com, which isn’t as good as Valencia’s mark of +1.2 on the road.

Ultimately, this is a pair of sides that I have power-rated equally, and even if you account for home field advantage in the odds, I still don’t get the -115 moneyline price on Sociedad.

One thing to keep an eye on is whether striker Edinson Cavani will be available for the visitors as he was forced off with an injury in the last match. However, all signs point to it not being a serious problem.

Pick: Valencia +0.5 (-115)

AS Roma vs. Lazio

AS Roma Odds +100
Lazio Odds +270
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-108 / -114)
Day | Time 12 p.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Hennion: Both teams will play this match on short rest, which I expect could lead to some offense.

At home this season, Roma’s attack has performed very well. Through its first five games, manager Jose Mourinho’s side has created 1.64 expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes and is due for some positive regression having scored six goals on 8.2 xGOT.

On the flip-side, Lazio have conceded only 1.99 total xGOT away from home this season, but that’s largely a function of their schedule. Through their first five road games, Lazio have faced only one top-seven team from last season (Fiorentina). In that match, they allowed 2.18 xG, per fotmob.com.

Plus, in two head-to-head meetings last season, Roma thoroughly dominated Lazio. Across both meetings, Roma scored five times – including three at home – off 6.43 xGOT.

Add in that Lazio will travel without key midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and I’ll bet this market up to -120.

Pick:  Roma Over 1.5 (-105)

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