Spurs vs. Wolves Betting Preview: Our Latest Premier League Picks, Predictions, Expert Tips & Updated Odds
Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham standout Son Heung-min.
- Tottenham hosts Wolverhampton in Saturday’s Premier League showdown.
- Harry Kane and Spurs are heavy -275 moneyline favorites, but analyst Nick Hennion has found some betting value on the hosts via an alternate spread.
- Check out below why he’s expecting Tottenham to roll in this meeting.
Spurs vs. Wolves Odds
| Spurs Odds | -275 |
| Wolves Odds | +725 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Fresh off stealing a last-gasp point at Stamford Bridge in its latest Premier League match, Tottenham returns home Saturday to battle Wolverhampton, which drew with Fulham its most recent contest.
Spurs will be looking for revenge against Wolves in a potential letdown spot. Last season, despite winning the match on expected goals, Tottenham suffered a 2-0 home loss against Wolverhampton. In the reverse fixture at Molineux Stadium, it was a 1-0 Spurs win that saw Wolves win on expected goals.
Since it earned promotion, Wolverhampton has done well to earn points against Tottenham. In eight meetings, Wolves is 3-4-1 (W-L-D) against Spurs.
Tottenham
The highlight of Spurs' first two matches has undoubtedly been their attack, which has scored six goals through its first two fixtures.
However, that has come on only 2.6 xG and five big scoring chances, per fotmob.com, so Tottenham could be in for some negative offensive regression.
Plus, although it's only a one-game sample, Spurs were unquestionably better at home. In its opening match against Southampton, manager Antonio Conte's side cruised to a 4-1 victory and 1.5-0.5 edge on xG. Dating back to last season, Tottenham is 11-3-1 (W-L-D) in home games under Conte and averaged 2.28 xG/90 minutes in those 14 fixtures, per fbref.com.
By The Numbers
- 79 — Tottenham's home winning percentage under Conte.
- 5/14 — Number of times Tottenham allowed 1.0+ xG at home under Conte.
Wolverhampton
The early results for Wolverhampton have been a bit mixed, with manager Bruno Lage's attack surprisingly leading the team.
Against Leeds United and Fulham, Lage's outfit combined for three big scoring chances and 2.6 xG in the process. However, it has only managed to find the net once in those two matches, suggesting positive regression could come soon.
That said, the defense has looked leaky at the back against far inferior offenses to Tottenham's attack. Through two fixtures, Wolves conceded four big scoring chances, all of which were missed. Thus, negative defensive regression could simultaneously be on the way.
By The Numbers
- +1.74 — Wolverhampton’s xG minus goals in its opening two fixtures.
- 2.66 — The xGA/90 minutes by Wolves at the top-five clubs last season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Let's continue to ride the Tottenham train against bottom-half sides shall we?
Given my power rankings make Wolves a bottom-half team for the season, that fits a profitable historical trend for Spurs. Including its opening match against Southampton, Tottenham has won 10 of its last 11 on home soil against bottom-half opposition.
In those fixtures, Spurs created 2.01 xG/90 minutes, while surrendering more than one xG only four times. All told, Tottenham has a +1.04 xGDiff per 90 minutes in those 11 tilts and won a majority by at least one xG overall.
On the flip side, Wolverhampton allowed 2.01 xG/90 minutes last season in road matches against sides above it in the final table, while creating only 1.06 xG/90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Lay the goals with Spurs at anything plus money.
The Pick: Spurs -1.5 (+100)
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