Tuesday MLS Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Toronto FC vs. Montreal (Sept. 1)
Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire for Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC goalkeeper Quentin Westberg.
- On Tuesday night, Toronto FC has the chance to make history, potentially tying the 2004-05 Columbus Crew SC for the MLS regular season record for most consecutive matches (19) without a defeat.
- Montreal's moneyline is listed at +600, but don't count the Impact out: Montreal should be amply motivated to thwart Toronto FC's historic bid.
- In fact, Jeremy Pond likes the Impact's chances to cover the +1.5 spread (-137), along with a play on the total and a player prop to round out his Tuesday MLS betting card.
Toronto FC vs. Montreal Odds
|Toronto FC odds||-240 [BET NOW]|
|Montreal odds||+600 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+360 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-182/+138) [BET NOW]|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
History is on the line Tuesday when Toronto FC hosts Montreal in Major League Soccer action.
The Reds have a chance to tie the league record for consecutive matches without a defeat at 19 games when they take on the Impact in the latest edition of the heated 401 Derby in Toronto.
This game marks the second time these rivals are squaring off in less than a week, with the Reds cruising to a 1-0 victory on Friday at Stade Saputo in Montreal.
Toronto FC has been nothing but spectacular since the MLS restart, going a perfect 3-0 against its Canadian foes. Perhaps the brightest spot for the league’s top franchise has been its defense, which has yet to concede a goal since its return from the MLS is Back tournament.
On the other side, Montreal had a two-game winning streak snapped in that shutout defeat and will look to get its offense back on track after earning a 2-0 win over Vancouver prior to the loss to the defending Eastern Conference champion.
Looking at the data and statistics, nothing has changed since the last time these sides met. Toronto FC boasts a stunning 9.4 expected goals against 2.2 expected goals against for a +7.2 xGDiff figure, along with a +1.44 xGDiff/90 minutes. The Reds’ xGDiff is No. 1 across the entire league, and their xGDiff/90 is second only to Seattle.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
In contrast, Montreal is well behind Toronto FC in the same categories (3.9 xGF/5.9 xGA = -2.2 xGDiff and -0.55 xGDiff/90) and is really up against it.
On paper, this is a total mismatch. Toronto FC is the best team in the league, and Montreal can’t seem to get away from midtable in the Eastern Conference standings. However, these rivalry matches tend to be relatively tight regardless of form, and I think we could be in for a closer game than expected.
The last three meetings between these sides have been one-goal affairs, with Toronto FC winning each match. I like the Reds to get the home win but believe this streak of close contests continues in this spot.
That said, I think Montreal will hang around again and will back it on the spread.
The total is currently 2.5 goals at -182, but that is simply too high in my opinion. With that in mind, I am going to buy up the number half a goal and play the total to stay under three instead. Three of the last five matches have seen less than three goals and I forecast that trend to continue at BMO Field.
If you’re looking for a player prop, go with Alejandro Pozuelo to score at any point. The marquee midfielder is the first choice on penalties and direct kicks, which makes him a logical play. Montreal averages more than 12 fouls per match, so I like my chances of cashing on this small play.
The Bets: Alejandro Pozuelo To Score (+117), Montreal +1.5 (-137), Total Under 3 Goals (-130)