England vs Denmark Betting Picks, Predictions: 1 Spread, 2 Props to Bet for Euro 2020 Semifinal

England vs Denmark Betting Picks, Predictions: 1 Spread, 2 Props to Bet for Euro 2020 Semifinal article feature image
Credit:

Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images. pictured: England star Harry Kane.

  • England or Denmark? One of these nations is going to secure its place in Sunday's Euro 2020 championship when they square off Wednesday in London (3 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • Analysts Jeremy Pond, BJ Cunningham, Anthony Dabbundo and Matthew Trebby unveil their best bets below for England vs. Denmark match.

We will find out Wednesday which nation will join Italy in Sunday’s Euro 2020 championship when England meets Denmark at Wembley Stadium in London.

The Three Lions reached this stage of the competition with a 4-0 shellacking of Ukraine in the quarterfinal round. Harry Kane finally got things going, scoring twice for England in the rout. And as much as its offense has been on point, its defense has been even better en route to five consecutive shutouts.

On the other side, Denmark continued its magical run with a 2-1 victory over Czech Republic in the quarterfinals. Thomas Delaney and Kasper Dolberg recorded first-half goals for the Danes, who have won three consecutive games after losing their opening two affairs against Finland and Belgium.

Analysts Jeremy Pond, Matthew TrebbyBJ Cunningham and  Anthony Dabbundo unveil their best bets for this showdown. Let’s take a peak at their top selections below and see what they’re forecasting might be in store.

Wednesday’s Euro 2020 Picks

ANALYST PICK | ODDS BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond Both Teams To Score, Yes (+115) BetMGM
Matthew Trebby Denmark +0.5 (+116) DraftKings
BJ Cunningham England To Win Via Shutout (+155) DraftKings
Anthony Dabbundo Denmark +0.5 (+116) DraftKings

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon.


Jeremy Pond: England vs. Denmark: Both Teams To Score — Yes (+115)

When it comes to picking a side, I’m simply torn. My head and wallet say England, but my heart says Denmark. Obviously, I’m going with the former, but it’s been awesome to see what the Danes have accomplished after star losing Christian Eriksen in the first game against Finland. Denmark lost the match as well, so to see them a victory away from the final should be globally respected.

As for England, there isn’t anyone playing better at the moment, with Italy being the lone comparison. Yes, the Three Lions have had the easier path to the semifinal round, but you still have to produce and win the games in front of you, which is something France and the Netherlands, for example, didn’t do.

Defensively, England is one of the best in the world and has yet to give up a goal. And it goes without saying playing on home turf at Wembley is a huge advantage for the tournament favorite. Harry Kane seems to have finally found his form, plus Raheem Sterling has silenced his doubters with three goals.

Since I have no real angle on a side, I’m heading to the props and backing both teams to score at +115 odds via BetMGM as my top selection. Denmark has scored 11 goals in its last four matches (including four each against Russia and Wales) after getting shut out under those brutal playing circumstances in its opener against Finland. The Danes actually dominated that match before Eriksen became ill and were well on their way to win or no worse than a draw.

When it comes to expected goals, Denmark is thriving in the metric. They’ve dominated the xG battles, recording 1.9, 1.8, 2.1, 2.0 and 1.2 xG in five games, according to FBref.com. The 1.2 xG was even with Czech Republic, but they were up in that match early, so getting forward and adding a third goal wasn’t priority. So, that number is skewed in my opinion.

That said, I’m going this route and will hope the number drifts toward somewhere in the neighborhood of +120 before the start.

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Matthew Trebby: Denmark +0.5 (+116) vs. England

Denmark is getting the action so far, given the fact England was at -150 odds soon after its rout of Ukraine. And the Danes are worthy of bettors’ backing.

The underdog opened the tournament, registering at least 1.9 expected goals in each of their first four games, before taking a 2-0 halftime lead over Czech Republic that forced it to defend most of the second half finishing with 1.2 xG. So, even without Christian Eriksen, the Danes are creating chances.

Defensively, Denmark has an experienced back three and midfield duo that will have plenty of familiarity with England. Two defenders ply their trade in the Premier League, while Pierre-Emile Höjbjerg has played in the English top flight since 2016. Kasper Dolberg has three goals in his last two games, finally giving the Danes a capable No. 9 up top.

I do think England’s 4-0 victory over Ukraine is nothing to write home about. The Three Lions were clearly the better team and gifted most of their goals. The opener was due to a Ukrainian defender losing track of Harry Kane, along with two from absolutely horrific marking on set pieces.

While encouraging for the immensely talented England attack, I remain unconvinced. Denmark is going to be a very difficult test, having earned a win and draw in late 2020 against manager Gareth Southgate’s men in the UEFA Nations League action.

I’m backing Denmark to get a result, either to win the game in 90 minutes or force extra time. I’d play Denmark +0.5 as long as it’s a plus number.

BJ Cunningham: England To Win Via Shutout (+155) vs. Denmark

England looked fantastic against Ukraine, they controlled and managed the game well, looked lively on the counter and looked deadly swinging crosses into the area, which Denmark is going to have to be ready for because they haven’t faced a team with the pace and attacking talent of England yet in this tournament. 

What will be interesting about this match is who controls more possession, because England has shown so far in this tournament that they can be successful without a line share of the possession, which has allowed them to play an incredibly successful low block.

And give England credit, still to this point in the tournament they have not allowed a goal and they’re only allowing their opponents to create 3.27 expected goals, they’ve allowed the second fewest shot creating actions, and allowed third fewest passes in their own final third of the field.

What I am interested to see is how England decides to play this match, are they going to play with the handbrake on and play that low block for most the match like they did against Germany, or do they come out on the front foot and look to put pressure on Denmark’s back line like they did against Ukraine. 

This match will be played in London, which gives England the home field advantage and honestly I trust England’s defense to shut down the Danish attack, so I am going to back England to win nil at +143 and would play anything down to +125 odds.

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Anthony Dabbundo: Denmark +0.5 (+116) vs. England

Credit to England for their 4-0 thrashing of an exhausted Ukraine side. For the first time in the tournament, England deserved to win a game against an inferior team by multiple goals. The Three Lions  showed what they can be when their set pieces come off effective counterattacks. That being said, they are overpriced in this match. 

Denmark didn’t dominate the Czech Republic like it did its first four opponents, but game state played a role after the nation went up 1-0 in five minutes and 2-0 in the opening half. The Danes continue to be undervalued because of the names on the team sheet; not because of their actual performances.

Denmark will be able to have the ball in this set-up, but it can take advantage of the space between Kyle Walker and John Stones that Ukraine did not. The Danish have has an excellent set piece defense to nullify England’s edge there. While Denmark might be vulnerable in transition defense, I trust manager Kasper Hjulmund to keep it solid at the back.

Denmark can at least get this semifinal into extra time. Anything on the Danes +0.5 at plus money represents good value. It might be coming home, but don’t pencil England into the final just yet. 

I’ve been higher than the market on Denmark in all five of its matches thus far, with that continuing to be the case in this semifinal affair.

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