Wolves vs. Liverpool Odds, Pick, Prediction | Premier League Match Preview (Feb. 4)
Matthew Ashton/Getty. Pictured: Liverpool and Wolves.
Wolves vs. Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-124 / +102)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-146 / +114)|
|Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Wolves and Liverpool meet for the third time in less than a month at Molineux Stadium in a must win match for both squads.
The home side is still battling in and around the relegation zone and is desperate for points at the moment. The last time Wolves played in the Premier League, they were beaten pretty handily by Manchester City, which means through 20 matches they’ve only been able to pick up 17 points. They were able to take Liverpool to a replay in the FA Cup recently and if they put in that same type of performance on Saturday, they should walk away with at least a point.
Liverpool were beaten by Brighton and Hove Albion once again last weekend, this time in the FA Cup. Jurgen Klopp’s side is in a really bad run of form as of late, as they have just one win in their last six matches across all competitions.
They are currently in ninth place in the Premier League table and need to go on a crazy run over the second half of the season to have any hope of getting a spot inside the top four.
Wolves Repetitively Playing Same Type of Game
Wolves’ offensive performances against Manchester City and West Ham in their last two matches are a perfect microcosm of their entire season.
They created 1.7 xG off of 27 shots and did not register a shot with an xG rating over 0.15. In fact, 18 of those 27 shots came from outside the box, where Wolves is taking 40% of their shots this season.
It’s also why they have the fourth-longest average shot distance, the lowest xG per shot and have created the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League.
In fact, they have failed to create over 1 xG in seven of their last eight matches. With that being said, in their 1-0 loss to Liverpool in FA Cup replay, they were by far the better side and actually did create a number of decent chances.
Wolves 0-1 Liverpool: Jürgen Klopp's 999th game as a manager ends with an attacking performance that you'd probably call 999 about.
However, this is cup football and it doesn't have to be pretty to progress. Job done. pic.twitter.com/C3HbWvJPhY
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 18, 2023
Wolves’ have been pretty good defensively this season. They are only conceding 1.33 npxG per 90 minutes and are top 11 in big scoring chances allowed. Over the two legs of the FA Cup against Liverpool, they held Jurgen Klopp’s side to just 1.42 xG, so they clearly are capable of slowing down the Reds.
Liverpool Struggling to Get Anything Right
Liverpool got dismantled by Brighton once again in the FA Cup and Klopp’s “heavy metal” style of football has turned more into an acoustic tune you hear at your local coffee shop.
Their press doesn’t have the same bite and intensity that is has had in years past and it’s really the driving force behind a lot of their problems. Last season, Liverpool’s PPDA was 8.07 and now it’s 10.77, per understat.com. Liverpool’s high turnovers have also dropped from 11.7 last season to 9.5 this season, per The Analyst.
Liverpool have a lot of problems at the moment and the core issue is that they are not as dominant in the midfield as they’ve been in years past. Thiago, Fabinho and Jordan Henderson are not able to cover ground like they used to and they are forced to be the ones to make runs into the box to support the attack. So, when Liverpool lose the ball, their midfielders get caught caught too far up the pitch and teams can exploit them in transition.
Additionally Liverpool are without star center back Virgil van Djik, throwing an added difficulty into an already bad situation.
Wolves vs. Liverpool Pick
With how bad Liverpool’s defense has been, it’s hard to make a case that they are going to keep Wolves from scoring, considering they allowed them to create 2.4 xG over the two legs of the FA Cup.
Wolves’ attack has to improve going forward, especially after adding Matheus Cunha from Atletico Madrid during the January transfer window.
Therefore, I like the value on the Wolves spread at -110.
Pick: Wolves +0.5 (-110)
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