Significant Line Movement for Saturday’s World Cup Matches

Significant Line Movement for Saturday’s World Cup Matches article feature image

Twitter/Argentina. Pictured: Argentina’s Lionel Messi

The third day of the 2018 World Cup brings us four incredible matches to bet on in two different groups. I’ve broken down the betting market for each one below.

France vs. Australia (6 a.m. ET), Group C

France opened as hefty -450 favorites back in December, but odds have come down to -375. Australia has attracted nearly 20% of moneyline bets, and the market has taken notice, dropping the odds on the Socceroos from +1785 to +1000.

On the goal-line, France (-1.5) is getting nearly 90% of the action, so a one-goal victory is probably the preferred result for sportsbooks.

Argentina vs. Iceland (9 a.m. ET), Group D

There hasn’t been a ton of line movement in this one, but Argentina has moved from -267 to -285, and peaked at -310 a few weeks ago. Most of the betting tickets (78% moneyline, 78% spread) have come in on the South Americans to claim a victory, but that’s expected of the big favorites.

With a low total of 2.5, I’m predicting a 2-0 Argentina victory.

Peru vs. Denmark (12 p.m. ET), Group C

As mentioned in my game preview, all the love has been toward Peru in this one. They’ve attracted nearly half the tickets and cash to beat Denmark straight up, and their odds have come down accordingly to +225.

There’s also been considerable movement on the total, which has dropped from 2.25 to 2. Just over half the bets have come in on the under, so it appears the majority of the public agrees with the sharp action.

Croatia vs. Nigeria (3 p.m. ET), Group D

Nigeria may be a sneaky underdog in this tournament, but bettors aren’t quite convinced in the opener. Nearly 60% of public bettors, and sharp money, has moved Croatia from -101 to -130, while Nigeria has drifted from +345 to +435.

Bettors aren’t envisioning many goals, and more than 75% of tickets have come in on the under 2.25.