2022 French Open Odds, Picks, Analysis: Our Best Bets For Zheng-Cornet & Rybakina-Keys (May 28)
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Madison Keys.
The second week of the French Open is just a day away, with a good deal of players having confirmed their spots among the final 16 players in their respective draws.
Before the business end of the tournament gets underway, however, there is one more day of matches to attend to as we see who else gets to play in the prestigious second week of the year’s second major.
Let’s dive into two matches where I see value.
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Qinwen Zheng (-170) vs. Alize Cornet (+140)
7:30 a.m. ET
The first match of this piece comes on Court Phillipe Chatrier as Alize Cornet looks to move onto the second week of the French Open in front of her home crowd.
She takes on one of the better young prospects on tour in China’s Qinwen Zheng, who has impressed to this point, but is also a very raw talent.
With each player bringing different strengths to the table, it’s surprising to see the line favor one over the other in such a manner.
While there’s no doubt that Zheng is the more likely of the two to be dictating the points, she’s also very erratic and Cornet has that patented consistency that could very well break her down and wait out the unforced errors.
The slower red clay seen in Rome and at the French Open tends to reward the latter style more than the former, and Cornet’s ability to utilize dropshots and employ different spins could also throw Zheng off her game. Considering Zheng hasn’t yet figured out how to dial down the pace against spins to avoid hitting errors, this will be a useful tactic.
Yet even in the period where the younger of the two may redline and not miss, Cornet’s ball retrieval skills should help keep her in points and extend rallies. With the crowd at her back, Cornet is a very live dog.
Tdhough the Zheng win over Simona Halep was impressive, Halep has since revealed she suffered a panic attack, which could help explain the lopsided loss after being 6-2 up.
The defensive style worked really well against Zheng prior to that happening, and it’s something Cornet has the ability to replicate.
Pick: Cornet ML (+140 via DraftKings)
Elena Rybakina (-185) vs. Madison Keys (+150)
10:30 a.m. ET
The next match features a pair of women that not many would expect to be squaring off for a spot in the second week of a grand slam tournament….on clay.
Madison Keys and Elena Rybakina are both tall, big-hitting big-serving women who don’t move all that well. That’s not the traditional recipe for success at Roland Garros.
The duo has benefited nicely from the draw though, with Rybakina getting lower-ranked, but tricky clay courter Arantxa Rus in her opening match, followed by an American hard courter in Katie Volynets.
Keys got past Anna Kalinskaya and then Caroline Garcia, who returned to play this week for the first time since Miami.
While the odds say this one tilts in the favor of the Kazakh, the odds are a little too skewed and there is some value on Keys to win this match outright.
Considering the poor returning nature of each woman, however, plus the massive serves that each possesses, the total sitting at 21.5 games appears to be a more ideal market to attack. It’s very rare that a match on the women’s side gets to 22.5 games, but in this spot, that is where the pricing should be.
Keys faced break points in just one service game against Garcia. The Frenchwoman also showed us how lengthy a Keys match can get when she plays a solid server, as Garcia came up with some timely serving and extended that match to 23 total games.
With Rybakina being a better server and better player than the current iteration of Garcia, there’s no reason to believe this one isn’t full of close sets and potentially goes to a decider.
Pick: Over 21.5 games (-110 via DraftKings)