Sunday Australian Open WTA Betting Odds & Picks: 4th-Round Matchups Offering Value
Photo by Chaz Niell/Getty Images. Pictured: Garbine Muguruza of Spain pumps her fist
We have four more women’s matches tonight to decide the final two quarterfinal matchups. I see value in two sides, which I’ll detail below:
- Iga Swiatek vs Anett Kontaveit (9 p.m. ET)
- Garbine Muguruza vs. Kiki Bertens (11:30 p.m. ET)
All odds as of Sunday morning.
Iga Swiatek +110 vs. Anett Kontaveit
Back to the well on the teenager that has shown a level of confidence we didn’t see in her debut year on Tour last year.
Kontaveit has played some marvelous tennis through the first three rounds in Melbourne, topped off by her 6-0 6-1 destruction of world No. 7 Belinda Bencic. Bencic was far from good, routinely hitting the ball in the middle of the court and right into Kontaveit’s strike zone.
But credit must been given to her for firing winners. She hit 21 winners with 14 coming off her forehand. She kept her unforced error count down to seven as well.
I was surprised Bencic couldn’t give her more trouble and push her around the court. Swiatek will have to be able to move Kontaveit around and get the ball deeper in the court than Bencic.
Swiatek was impressive in her own right versus the big hitting Donna Vekic in round three. Despite her serve not being at her best (55% IN), she dominated when it was in winning 81% of first-serve points. She also kept her unforced error count low, hitting only 18 compared to 32 winners.
These two played last year in Cincinnati where Kontaveit (-150) won a tight 6-4 7-6(2) match. Swiatek saw more break points over more games, but couldn’t convert in the high-leverage situations.
Kontaveit is a similar player to Vekic. Though she doesn’t have the same power or serve Vekic has, she will just stand at the baseline and try to hit winners mainly off her forehand.
Swiatek won’t have to change much strategy between matches. Her goal should be to continue to try and get the ball deep in the court and move Kontaveit around. Bencic’s biggest issue was hitting groundstrokes right into Kontaveit’s wheelhouse.
I have Swiatek as a slight favorite in this match at a 55% win probability. Her post match remarks only give me more confidence that this tournament could be special for the teenager.
Swiatek on making R16 at 2 of the last 3 Slams: “I just feel like I really belong here. 1st year on tour I wasn’t so confident. Right now I feel I can do it and I have everything I need to play against the best players. If I keep working hard, who knows what is going to happen."
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) January 25, 2020
Pick: Iga Swiatek +110
Garbine Muguruza -140 vs Kiki Bertens
Muguruza is on some run to start the Aussie Open. After getting bageled to open the Open to Shelby Rogers, Muguruza has dropped only one set.
Versus Elina Svitolina in the third round, Muguruza looked utterly dominant. She hit 31 winners to nine unforced errors and never even let Svitolina into the match. It was the best performance we’ve seen from the former multiple Grand Slam winner in years.
Bertens has had a solid start to the open without dropping a set. She takes a big step up in class with Muguruza though.
Bertens owns a 3-2 head-to-head record versus Muguruza, however, two of those wins were on the ITF level over nine years ago and all three of Berten’s wins were on clay.
Muguruza has recorded the last two wins on hard courts in recent years. Both came while Muguruza was not in the greatest of form. When Muguruza gets hot, especially in a Slam, she can beat anyone on Tour.
This is a bit of an inflated line mainly due to Muguruza’s drubbing of Svitolina, but she’s the more talented player, especially on hard courts. Bertens has really developed her game over the past two years on hard courts, but Muguruza still holds a distinct advantage. I believe Muguruza’s power and precision will get Bertens off balance and not allow her to blast winners.
I have Muguruza priced as a -145 favorite and wouldn’t play much past that number.
Pick: Garbine Muguruza -140