Wednesday BNP Paribas Open Tennis Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Late Favorite Bets at Indian Wells (Oct. 13)
Credit: Tim Nwachukwu, Getty. Alex de Minaur celebrates at the BNP Paribas Open.
- If a busy Wednesday afternoon slate wasn't enough tennis for you, action continues tonight at the BNP Paribas Open.
- Avery Zimmerman dissects the evening session, which includes Stefanos Tsitsipas on the docket.
- Check out below whom he has as part of his favorite betting angles at Indian Wells.
Though the early session of Wednesday’s action at the BNP Paribas Open will serve as a great appetizer, the evening slate has even more to offer, with four excellent matches being played.
Every player on the card is ranked at the event and can compete, making for an exciting night of tennis at Indian Wells.
Read on for my thoughts on where the opportunities for value exist.
Match times are subject to change.
Jannik Sinner (-225) vs. Taylor Fritz (+175)
4:40 p.m. ET
Fritz earned one of the wins of his career Tuesday, taking out Sinner’s fellow countryman Matteo Berrettini. The American can struggle with tightness in key moments, and just a week ago he dropped a set from 4-1 40-15* up against Denis Shapovalov. He was at risk of losing a double-break lead in the first set before finding his focus and cruising to the finish line from there.
His opponent Sinner didn’t have to play a third-round match, as he was slated to face John Isner before the self-proclaimed “serve bot” announced he would be withdrawing from the event due to the impending birth of his third child.
Despite this, Sinner has been playing high-quality tennis of late, winning the Sofia Open without dropping a set and dominating John Millman in his last match. He appears to be very comfortable and confident on the court right now, playing the same style of tennis no matter the stage of the match.
The pair haven’t met before at the professional level, but there will be many more times in the future after this one. Fritz is 23 while Sinner is 20, and both project to have very successful futures on tour. However, in this matchup, I think the value lies with Sinner.
Though you probably want to avoid the Italian at -225 odds, it would be worth it to get him at -2.5 games or better.
Karen Khachanov (-275) vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili (+215)
4:40 p.m. ET
In a battle of big hitters, Khachanov and Basilashvili will be doing a number on tennis balls this evening. Both absolutely crush the ball, and with the extreme slowness of the courts in Indian Wells, they’re going to get chance after chance to do it.
The Russian Khachanov put on a phenomenal performance in his third round match with Pablo Carreno Busta, outclassing the Spaniard in a 6-0 6-4 win. Carreno Busta and Khachanov’s first opponent — Emil Ruusuvuori — are quite different stylistically, but Khachanov was able to hit through both players and win four consecutive sets.
Basilashvili dropped the opener in his last match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, but after snagging the second set tiebreaker, he was able to lock in and leave with a victory.
The Georgian has a 3-2 record against Khachanov, but the most recent meeting between the pair came in 2019. Due to the similarity that each player has in terms of style, it really comes down to form when they play.
Both are in a rhythm at the moment, so while Khachanov is a rightful favorite due to his marginally higher level, Basilashvili is worth a play at +215. If he is just a bit better than Khachanov on the day, he’ll be able to force errors out of him, giving bettors a great price.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-500) vs. Alex de Minaur (+350)
9 p.m. ET
This matchup can go one of two ways. Either the Greek could throttle the Aussie or it will be an all-out battle. There will be no in between.
It’s very much unlike de Minaur to be consistently outplayed by someone, but no one has gotten to him more than Tsitsipas. The world No. 3 has a 7-1 record against de Minaur, and he’s only dropped one set in non-next gen finals matches (the scoring is a bit different in those).
That’s not the only thing working against de Minaur in this matchup. Up until his Indian Wells victories against Aleksandar Vukic and Cristian Garin, he hadn’t been able to get anything going, and I mean anything. With four consecutive losses on the bounce, de Minaur needed a solid week in the desert and he’s gotten it.
While Tsitsipas looked a touch vulnerable against Fabio Fognini in their third round encounter, getting a matchup with de Minaur will make him supremely confident. An in-form de Minaur is a scary player to face though, and if he’s truly turned the corner, he could pose a problem for a player who could be overlooking him.
With a +115 price to win a set, it’s far more worthwhile to take a small chance on the Aussie with the moneyline. If he can break his rut against Tsitsipas, you can expect it to come in emphatic fashion.
Alex Zverev (-500) vs. Gael Monfils (+350)
10:15 p.m. ET
In the concluding match of the night, Monfils will battle the red-hot Zverev on Stadium 1.
Fascinatingly, Monfils actually has a 3-0 H2H record against Zverev, though the pair’s last meeting came in 2016, before Zverev had turned 20. Now, the German is ranked fourth in the world and incredibly hard to beat. The only man that’s done it in the past month is Novak Djokovic.
To his credit, the Frenchman has been looking as fit as he has in a long time, and he’s matched that with quality ball striking that has seen him through to a final in Sofia and four wins in his last five matches.
Unfortunately for Monfils, there’s not much that he’ll really be able to do against Zverev. Barring the second serve woes that have plagued Zverev in the past returning, he should be able to break down Monfils with relative ease. If you can get him at -130 or better to win the match in straights, I believe it would be well worth it.