Wednesday BNP Paribas Open Tennis Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Early Best Bets, Including Daniil Medvedev (Oct. 13)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniil Medvedev hits a forehand at the BNP Paribas Open.
- We have more exciting tennis action Wednesday at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
- Avery Zimmerman takes a look at the early card, which includes Daniil Medvedev on the slate as a heavy favorite.
- Check out below who he has among his top plays on the schedule.
The round of 16 has arrived at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and with it comes an eight-match slate of tennis on Wednesday’s card.
Every player will take the court in an effort to make the quarterfinals, giving fans of the sport some serious opportunities for value.
Continue reading below for a breakdown of each match in the early session and plays to consider.
Match times are subject to change. As always, you can make sure you know how to watch here.
Hubert Hurkacz (-165) vs. Aslan Karatsev (+134)
2 p.m. ET
The Russian eliminated Hurkacz from the San Diego Open this past week, and the only prior meeting between the two came in a 2017 Challenger event. The key similarity between these matches was they were on a knife’s edge.
Each match went three sets and while I can’t speak for the 2017 contest, last week’s San Diego Open matchup featured some brutal rallies. With the expected conditions as slow and windy as they are in Indian Wells, you can expect that again.
Karatsev appears to be rounding back into the form he found at the beginning of the season, when he went from being an unfamiliar player to most fans to becoming an Australian Open and ATP champion. With an ability to stand at the baseline and fire big stroke after big stroke, consistency will always be the key to his game. It appears that he’s found it for now.
After a week in Metz where Hurkacz won both a singles and doubles title without dropping a set, he’s been getting accustomed nicely to the complex conditions in California. While his only loss in California thus far is the one he suffered against Karatsev, these conditions favor the 24-year-old who doesn’t take as many risks as Karatsev.
It should be a fascinating match to watch unfold, but with this line the value is with Karatsev, who has the power to break down Hurkacz, even in tough conditions.
Casper Ruud (-270) vs. Diego Schwartzman (+205)
2 p.m. ET
Ruud is a player that entered the season with two consecutive losing seasons on hard courts, giving him the title of a clay court specialist. If you only looked at his clay results in 2021, you’d probably agree with the sentiment, but his recent results on hards have been unbelievable. The Norwegian now has a 16-5 hard court record on the year, with a title in a stacked San Diego field as well.
He’s developed his game to be able to play attacking tennis where he frequently takes the initiative in points and doesn’t give his opponent a chance to get in them. In the third round against Lloyd Harris, it looked like Ruud’s tournament would be coming to an end. However, after saving each of the eight break points he faced, he found a way to come through victorious in a match he had no business winning. The result was a testament to the player he’s become.
Schwartzman’s third round encounter was also a tricky one, with the Argentine recovering from a set and a break down to bagel Dan Evans in the third set. His lack of ability to maintain a consistent level throughout either his match against Evans or his second round match against Maxime Cressy will bother Schwartzman, but he’s shown incredible grit to get to this point.
The young pair have already met six times at the professional level, with Schwartzman taking the first four and Ruud taking the last time. At this price, neither is worth a play, but I would expect that trend to continue.
Daniil Medvedev (-900) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (+550)
3:20 p.m. ET
Though the charismatic Dimitrov has been striking the ball really well in recent weeks, he’s coming into a buzzsaw with the world’s No. 2 player. Medvedev has been unbeatable recently, dropping one set in his last 10 matches and showing supreme confidence on the court.
The Russian is making a push for the year end world number one spot, and a title in the Indian Wells Tennis Garden would give him a big boost. Despite his objections to the court speed, it suits his game (outside of the service aspect).
Medvedev, asked if the court felt especially slow tonight in cold weather:
'It was pretty similar to two days ago when it was warmer. I mean it cannot get any more slow. If it got more slow we would be staying inside the court and playing mini-tennis.'
— Oleg S. (@AnnaK_4ever) October 12, 2021
He is simply able to stand a couple feet behind the baseline and get every single ball back. That doesn’t bode well for Dimitrov, who is prone to errors and mistakes when forced into extended rallies. It explains the three-match win streak that Medvedev owns on the Bulgarian, with the most recent coming just a month ago.
Obviously at -900odds, Medvedev isn’t worth a bet, but some props could be in play if you back the Russian. Unfortunately, the juice is just so heavy that it rules out many opportunities.
Cameron Norrie (-180) vs. Tommy Paul (+145)
3:20 p.m. ET
The American Paul secured one of the upsets of the tournament when he defeated Andrey Rublev from a +400 position out of nowhere. It was perhaps his biggest win to this point of his career, and it isn’t the most surprising upset given how hard he pushed the Russian in Madrid.
Norrie is another player that has found his form from earlier in the season, hitting the ball with extreme confidence and poise as he did throughout the clay and grass season.
The moneyline price on the Brit may be a bit too hefty to stomach, but if you can get Norrie at a game spread at -1.5 or better, I would get on it. Despite Paul’s 2-0 professional record against Norrie, he hasn’t faced this version of the former TCU player just yet, and I could see him having a really tough time with the relentless nature of Norrie’s game after a grueling battle with Rublev.