Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds, Pick | Wimbledon Semifinal Preview

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds, Pick | Wimbledon Semifinal Preview article feature image

Visionhaus, Shi Tang/Getty. Pictured: Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Odds

Alcaraz Odds-250
 Medvedev Odds+205
Over/Under 39.5 (-115 / -105)
Time | How to WatchFriday, 11 a.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch the Wimbledon, click here.

Two former Grand Slam champions will meet in the second semifinal on Friday's Wimbledon slate, looking to advance one step closer to capturing their second Slam titles.

While their Wimbledon meeting two years ago was taken in convincing fashion by Daniil Medvedev, the Russian will enter as a sizable underdog this time around against Carlos Alcaraz.

Let's break down how to bet this one in my Alcaraz vs Medvedev preview and pick.

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Alcaraz Elevating His Level to Nearly Untouchable Heights

The World No. 1 is now a perfect 10-0 so far this year on grass, taking the title two weeks ago at Queen's Club and racing through five matches here at Wimbledon to earn a spot in his third career Grand Slam semifinal. The first time he made a slam semifinal, he won his first career major title. The second time, he fell to Novak Djokovic at the French Open.

That loss was just the fourth that Alcaraz has suffered all season, and it was largely due to cramping. He also suffered an injury in the Rio final but finished out the match, losing to Cam Norrie.

The bottom line is that Alcaraz rarely loses, and even a defeat at the hands of former World No. 1 Medvedev would be considered a shock. The Spaniard has figured out how to play on grass quite quickly, dropping just two sets en route to this stage in the tournament, and he should be treated as the most dangerous player in the draw despite his relatively short track record on grass.

Alcaraz is really only endangered when he runs into an opponent who can hit the ball as hard as he does. That's the reason Jannik Sinner has been such a nemesis for the Spaniard, and it's the reason he's dropped two sets here at Wimbledon. He ran into some big-time power players in the third and fourth rounds in the form of Matteo Berrettini and Nicolas Jarry, and even then he figured out how to figure them out relatively quickly.

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Medvedev Looking to Build on Career-Best Result

Medvedev took a big step forward this season when he learned how to play on clay, posting his best record since in seven years on the surface by going 10-3. He's seemingly taken another big step in his progression at the age of 27 by achieving a career-best result at Wimbledon in reaching this year's semifinal.

He's still predominantly a hard court specialist, possessing a game only a select few in the world can find a way past. Medvedev has been less than that dominant force away from the surface, but here at Wimbledon he's been able to finally settle in and look comfortable on the grass. He has a game that is perfect for the turf in theory, hitting the ball incredibly low and flat from the back of the court and packing a huge punch on his serve. His elite defense also has a chance to shine on grass, and it's what ultimately got him past a strong-looking Chris Eubanks in the quarters.

The Russian has had to deal with some tricky opponents throughout the tournament, taking down Adrian Mannarino — a player who had just beaten him two weeks prior — in the second round. He also breezed past another player who'd previously had his number in Marton Fucsovics and a big-hitter in Jiri Lehecka. After all of that was said and done, he withstood an onslaught of winners from Eubanks in a match where he looked like the underdog throughout.

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Alcaraz vs Medvedev Pick

These two met a few months back in the Indian Wells final where Alcaraz pummeled Medvedev 6-3, 6-2. The Russian wasn't playing on a preferable surface considering the infamously slow speeds at that tournament, but even so he looked nothing like himself. He was going for low percentage shots towards the baseline and trying to get aggressive in rallies.

In doing so, Medvedev essentially admitted his tried-and-true method of playing the role of backboard from the back of the court wasn't going to work against Alcaraz. His quality is simply too high, and the errors rarely come from his racquet. He was a man with absolutely no answers, and I don't think he'll find any on Friday.

Alcaraz utilized plenty of serve and volley to exploit Medvedev's deep court position and also mixed in his legendary drop shot to perfection to punish his opponent for standing so far behind the baseline in rallies. Not everyone possesses that combination of power and touch, but the few who do — namely Nick Kyrgios — have been able to dominate Medvedev in recent years.

The Alcaraz game should overwhelm Medvedev here, and I like him to win inside of five sets. Medvedev was in a world of trouble with how hard Eubanks was hitting the ball on Wednesday, and it was only the American's inexperience and issues with unforced errors which allowed Medvedev to win. Alcaraz doesn't have those discernable weaknesses.

Pick: Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-135 via DraftKings)

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